2013: Year Of The Bitcoin - Forbes

Is there any consensus on what caused the bitcoin price spike of 2013?

submitted by hazysummersky to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

97.8% of BTC newbs won’t know this one. The theme tune of the 2013 price spike and a reminder of simpler times in the bitcoin community.

97.8% of BTC newbs won’t know this one. The theme tune of the 2013 price spike and a reminder of simpler times in the bitcoin community. submitted by BenIntrepid to btc [link] [comments]

01-27 06:33 - 'Invest with eyes open. In the history of BTC, there were only 2 major spikes - 1/11/2013 (10x) and 1/12/2017 (10x). Both believed to be due to price manipulations. In between, price stagnated. We are now in post spike and...' by /u/PeterPan2010 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 54-64min

'''
Invest with eyes open. In the history of BTC, there were only 2 major spikes - 1/11/2013 (10x) and 1/12/2017 (10x). Both believed to be due to price manipulations. In between, price stagnated. We are now in post spike and based on history, in stagnated period. People here asking you to "buy the dip" are just hoping for new money to flow in to support the current price.
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: PeterPan2010
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Is there any consensus on what caused the bitcoin price spike of 2013? /r/Bitcoin

Is there any consensus on what caused the bitcoin price spike of 2013? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Price Spikes November 2013, Then November 2014, And Now November 2015. Manipulation Anyone? Are We Dumb Or What?! /r/Bitcoin

Price Spikes November 2013, Then November 2014, And Now November 2015. Manipulation Anyone? Are We Dumb Or What?! /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Will Grexit Force Bitcoin Price to Spike like the 2013 Cyprus Collapse? (Op-Ed)

Will Grexit Force Bitcoin Price to Spike like the 2013 Cyprus Collapse? (Op-Ed) submitted by MuchBitcoin to MuchBitcoin [link] [comments]

Why the bitcoin price spike in October 2013?

Why the bitcoin price spike in October 2013? submitted by Relborg to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Dude describes how bitcoin helped him to financial independence and retiring early

Found on /financialindependence:
"I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine."
Source: https://old.reddit.com/financialindependence/comments/f7q7lo/one_year_update_38m_fired/
submitted by Rattlesnake_Mullet to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Lessons learned - Crypto and Divorce - In January I was a millionaire thanks to BTC, then my wife divorces me and now I have $30,000 AMA

Crossreferencing u/nanoissuperior He wrote earlier today: https://www.reddit.com/CryptoCurrency/comments/a3n6uw/in_january_i_was_a_millionaire_thanks_to_nano_now/
Title: In January I was a millionaire thanks to Nano, now I have $25,000 AMA

I was replying to his post, but my reply ended up being a bit too large as a reply and steered off-topic, albeit an interesting one. So I decided to make it its own post, because there may be a good lessons to be learned and hoping some will come forward with good information to be shared.
I hope it can help anyone on this sub avoid the costly mistakes that I made. Here it goes: FLAIR: LEGAL (not in the list)
----
u/nanoissuperior are you who I think you are? I won't give out any further identifying clues, but I happen to know someone in the exact same position that could have written that exact same headline. If you read the first paragraph, you'll know if you know me.
The person I know bought Nano really early, based on a tip from a friend. I got in much later. By the time he told me it had already spiked to the $5 range, when I ended up buying. I then sold in the $20's so it was a good buy nonetheless. We were former colleagues at a large, large software company somewhere in the PNW, I left the company to venture out on my own and try to launch some projects I had in mind and relocated overseas for a few years. We lost contact with each other during my time away, but we connected again during the market runup and started exchanging coin information on a daily basis during the big bull run of late 2017. That was a crazy time.... the market trend was a few degrees short of vertical for pretty much all coins!

Hey, guess what? Now that I think about it, I could have written that same headline myself! In January 2018 I was a Millionaire too! Not with Nano, but thanks to purchasing a good chunk of Bitcoin in 2011 at $1.20 each. I ended up a single digit millionaire with what I had left in Bitcoin around January of 2018.
And, just like you, today, from all that wealth, I have about $30.000 left, with little to show for. Can we call that even? Although my disaster was not caused entirely by market fluctuation; Mine is a more complex story and I am going to mention it, because hopefully, it could serve as a lesson to be learned for any crypto holder out there, so they don't make the make mistake I made: Don't trust anyone. Always be skeptical and watch out for your own interests. Anyhow, here it goes:
After 5 years overseas, I had enough and wanted to come back to the States. My wife stated her preference to stay abroad, but eventually, she conceded albeit reluctantly. We chose a small town in CO to settle, and landed in November of 2017. We had plans to settle down and considered purchasing a home with my/our new fortune, based on the market price during that period. At the same time, I was also hesitant about the inherent tax payments due caused by such large liquidation. I was trying to have to pay taxes as far away as possible. So, I decided to wait till New Year's Eve and started liquidating my crypto on January 1st, 2018 right after midnight. This way, I would have 16 months (till April, 2019) to pay any capital gains taxes, and I was confident at the time that the market would give me that for free, especially at the pace that it was going. I have been an early adopter and have since then acquired the high levels of verification and trading limits per week, with many exchanges, but for a large sum like this, I needed several separate transactions, over the course of several weeks, especially wanting to do it with a US-based exchange that was linked to a US bank accounts, to avoid overseas wire transfers, meaning more fees. (Yes, I did look at all OTC options, but for reasons not relevant to the story, I couldn't make it happen, so I had to use the traditional Exchange channels for asset liquidation).
My wife and I, initially had some fundamental disagreements on the gross amount to be spent and the type of property we should be purchasing. I wanted a smaller place, with a denser, younger community, where there'd be kids our son's age for him to play. She insisted that we should go big; we had been traveling for so many years, and we had not been able to call any of our past residences our home. It was time to settle and nest; She convinced me that we should own a property of our own that we would be proud of living in for years. One that we could own outright and would not easily outgrow. We ended up splurging and purchased in cash two luxury cars for ourselves and set our sights on a large dream house in the city's Golf & Country Club, free and clear, for us and our two kids. I don't even play golf, nor do I even like it, but, if it makes her happy and it is within the safe margins of making it happen, I figured, why not? My concerns were largely financial and the numbers were adding up. It was a bit tight against my personal safe margins, but, at the same time, I was imagining to never have to make, or even have to think about, a car or home mortgage payment ever again! Bitcoin is on a roll and there is no sign of it stopping. Fine. Let's do it, before I change my mind.
Now, I admit I was extremely lucky with choosing the time of when to sell the assets. I had no clue the market would take a dive in February, and so it seemed to many that I had timed the market perfectly, selling most of my coins in the first two weeks of January of 2018. Many called me a genius for selling at the very top, as if I had some sort of wisdom to know when it would drop; the truth is much less flattering; it was nothing but dumb luck, based on me wanting to pay taxes in 2018 and defer to 2019. Awesome, well done! Yeah? well, slow down, son, not so fast.
So, I gather the 7-digit lumpsum in January 2018 and we write a check for the full amount at closing in February on the property of her dreams. A property that could easily be showcased on a luxury Real Estate magazine cover. Also, remember we had just moved back to the United States with just a few suitcases each from overseas. We had no furniture, kitchenware, curtains, TV's, bed sheets, winter clothing and so many other essential things that one usually purchases over time, but which we now had to purchase all at once. Not a problem, Bitcoin had dropped slightly but still well above $15k, I believe, at the time. And, earlier, in January, I had diligently taken this expense into account and effortlessly set aside a small fortune for equipping such a large house with everything we would ever need, brand new. It seemed we were protagonists of one of the Home Makeover Shows.
Finally, after working day and night, prepping the house non-stop for days and when every piece of furniture had finally arrived, been unpacked and carried to its corresponding room, it seemed most of the essentials were in place and the hard work was done. I longed for pouring myself a Scotch and to finally sit down and enjoy the fruits of my labor. I head downstairs to the dedicated walk-in, cigar-humidor / wine / Scotch cellar in the basement and grab the better bottle of Whisky of the few bottles of Scotch that I had bought earlier in the week. On my way up, I remember feeling a sense of calm, combined with a glow of excitement and this undescribable profound inner peace, all at once. This was such a rare, natural, non-drug induced high that I had never experienced. It felt so good! This sense of accomplishment of achieving that one thing I had been chasing and longing for my entire life. I had expected I would be chasing this goal for the next 15-20 years, and yet, here it was. No, where I was, was even better than expected! A place where not even my parents, who still have to make their monthly mortgage payments. I had done it! With a smile from ear to ear, I take a deep breath of relief and while looking around the property, I think to myself: "It's perfect, everything is in place and I can finally call this our home. We are so lucky and we are going to live a great life. A life that few can only dream of. So many concerns will be lifted and become redundant. Everything will be better. I'll start a fire in one of our two fireplaces and I am going to begin enjoying my semi-retired life with the first sip of my drink. That will be the official start of our new life".
I head over to the kitchen to get a glass and some ice cubes, while I struggle to find which one is the freezer among the many drawers in the kitchen. It was then when I notice a handwritten note placed front and center on the kitchen counter. It is from my wife and read: "There is no easy way to say this, so I am just going to say it..... I want to legally divorce [ ...]". It continued saying that she had taken our son, and had unequivocally decided to leave me. She had already filed the paperwork for divorce and that I should expect to be served in the morning.
My bliss had lasted less than 5 minutes and in less than two seconds, it turned dark, somber and I saw it all crumbling down in front of me. Like a long-awaited rocket launch, years in preparation, which then unexpectedly explodes on the launch pad during the countdown. My stomach, heart and everything in my body just sank and melted into one ball of poison in my core. I felt like throwing up. I was completely blindsided; she had played the game all along, not giving me the slightest hint of what was being concocted in the background. She had already engaged with her lawyers weeks beforehand. Her mother was already in town from another state to help out with I don't know what. I had been gaslighted and was threatened by her that I needed to see a psychiatrist due to a change in my temper that I had supposedly developed - my temper was awesome: with BTC at that price? Everything was perfect! But I obeyed and went anyhow (this would later fit her story that she had to leave with the child because she feared for her safety due to my supposed temper for which I was under treatment, therefore, I must have this temper problem, see?). Also, the purchase of the overpriced home also seemed clearly premeditated: Price was the main driver of the decision making; not location, demographics, taxes, etc. It was the wrong neighborhood for us (people much older than us, retired, golfers and no kids the same age as our son to play with). Our house happened to also be the most expensive in the neighborhood. I can see it all so clearly now.
See, your crypto coins on the blockchain, are not within the US court's jurisdiction (or, at least, it's quite debatable - a gray area - ask me for the seed and I can tell you that I may have the seed, or that I may not have the seed, I may have the wrong seed, I may have forgotten it, I may have lost it - you can't prove I did not forget, or lost it, etc). However, once it is in FIAT in a bank, or invested in a property, the courts can rule on the asset(s), freeze, disburse or order a sale of the property, etc. It's done all the time.
Also, the coins were technically mine, and by definition private property (not to be divided during the divorce) as they were acquired before the marriage. I could not prove its origins (I bought many of them via direct messaging members on Bitcointalk.org and mining rather than exchanges, so no records, receipts or nothing to prove otherwise: the big exchanges like BitStamp and Coinbase didn't start operations till 2013, if I m not mistaken. Instead, I would talk to one of the forum members offering coins we'd agree on a price, I'd send a check to wherever the individual seller instructed me to (Russia, Bulgaria, Japan, UK. etc) and the coins would be deposited to whatever address I provided. Yes, it was quite crude at the time.
However, once I converted my coins to cash and used that cash to buy a property for the benefit of the family, it became common property and thus she then had rights to a portion of it when divided between the two parties should a divorce occur - which ended up being almost 3/4 of all assets.
I was robbed in broad daylight. By the one person, I trusted with my life. The one you should trust with your life. Your life partner. And while I was in complete denial, trying to bargain, I waited too long to obtain good legal representation. When I finally ended up getting a lawyer, I was quite distraught and I clearly did not do the proper research and this resulted in a less than stellar performance and detrimental to me at many key steps in the process. I had to switch legal representation right before mediation and I can't blame my new lawyer either, as (s)he did not have the required time to catch up on all the details, (s)he did his/her best, but I was ultimately strongarmed into conceding my soon-to-be-ex-wife to let her return to the house, in exchange to obtain 50% of my son's custody, with serious and strict clauses I had to abide by. So, I had to move out, find a hole in the wall in a student apartment, pay my rent and pay our kids pre-school, while she lives grandiose, without monthly payments in the country club, till the house sells, which will likely be in the spring of next year. Nice!
Due to my delay, legal mishandling and somehow every other element in her favor, she inexplicably ended up with around 3/4 of the worth of all assets, free and clear, no taxes due. Mind you, she has never financially contributed, nor made a single $ during our entire marriage. She has never worked and had $0 in her pocket when we married. She didn't even have a checking account, well in her thirties. She is no dummy; she is street smart, knows how to manipulate people, get her way with flirting and charm, while I am more intellectual and book smart. and She beat me hands-down. She is walking away with a sum of, not quite 7 figures, but close.
With what I am left with from the sale of the house, I am responsible to pay for all the capital gains taxes from the liquidation to the IRS, which are due in April 2019. I don't expect there to be more left over than the estimated $30k mentioned above.
Hate the market all you want, I made peace with the market and am keeping busy at hating my ex for a while for putting me in the same situation. She tripped me 1 yard before the finish line and pushed me in the prickly bushes, to cross it by herself. Go figure. When I am done hating her, I'll get back to rebuilding my life again from scratch. I am not worried, I have done it before. Just pissed, I was so close and that I was so naive to not see it coming.
Sorry, I am not meaning to hijack the thread, just wanted you to know that others may have lost more than just "free" money; money we didn't really have to work for. We were the lucky ones. It is what I keep telling myself to stop me from jumping off a bridge.
PS - Woah: Sorry for the wall of text; I was just going to write the first paragraph and ended up venting about my current situation. I know, I should take this issue to /depressed, /exes or /whereisthenearestbridgeIcanjumpfrom.
Hopefully, this can be a lesson to those holding crypto and some can learn what NOT to do. I learned the hard way and was left with nothing. Don't be a nice guy. Don't trust anyone with your crypto. Anyhow, I am sure either our vigilant subreddit bot, or one of the mods will remove my post for not adhering to rule, and if not, I am sure that you fine people will downvote me to hell. Go ahead. Take away from me the little Karma I left too! Thanks!

I learned many lessons, but here are some key ones [IANAL - any crypto-educated AL opinion appreciated here, thanks] :
- Understand the concept of private property - property you acquire before getting married. INAL - this depends on the state legislation, but it is hard to prove with crypto, especially if you obtained your crypto through foreign exchanges, outside of legal jurisdictions, the petitioner might not understand or willing to invest in obtaining subpoenas and requests to businesses operating overseas, as this may result costly.
- Get a lawyer who understands, or is willing to understand crypto, its benefits of being somewhat unreachable and how that can work for you. Don't let them shortchange you with: "well, let's just convert the rest to cash, because that I understand" type of reasoning.
- If you do go to mediation, the above applies as well. This arbitrator or mediator needs to be one that understands the intrinsic details of crypto - for example, during the ATH, I bought 6 digits worth in $USD of Stellar. I used the very first version of the software, supporting Stellar on my hardware device, and put it all in a cold storage wallet somewhere around January. I routinely checked on my coins on the blockchain and they are there. A few months later, I try to access my account and the device returns a different public address, which contains 0 funds. I am still trying to debug this issue with the manufacturer, but the fact is that I was accused of hiding these coins or negligence and was demanded that I paid half of what was lost. or not lost, out of my pocket for money that I didn't have access either. I tried to explain it in the simplest terms, there are risks involved with using first come software. There is no 1800 number, mo tech support. no CEO, no, you can't call the BBB and complain, etc and no one seemed to be able to understand, nor willing to either. It became a huge roadblock for which I had to concede, not cash, but a concession, I was not wanting to concede. The petitioner leaned on the fact that I was either wilfully cheating or stupid enough to lose the coins and managed to create enough doubt in my character and integrity and there was nothing rational I could explain that she, or anyone else in the room would understand. Perhaps mutually contracting a seasoned crypto expert that can offer a neutral view and give his/her opinion might be worth considering. Andreas, where were you when I needed you? :)
- Other examples were some coins I had bought in 2012 and gifted to some of her family's kids. I was holding these, till they would turn 16 for them to pay themselves their college, or so I told them. These coins were demanded back by the petitioner. Ok, I suggested that I would send them, but with a CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY value with a block height of let's say,10 years from now, out of fear that she would spend the coins and the kids would never know (they are toddlers). No one understood what I was talking about, I was made out the crazy one, I gave up, sent her the coins, unlocked and, just as I expected, within 20 minutes of receiving them, she spent $1200 worth of it (for a flight, I think). If you are the only one speaking your language, no one is willing to listen or make an effort to understand you.
- It appears my coins were private property, which means, that I acquired them before the marriage and in case of divorce, if I have not moved them or used them for the common good of the marriage, then they remain mine. However, I liquidated them and cash ended up in my checking account to be used to buy groceries, cars and eventually a house, and it is then that they became common property. Only once they landed in my checking account on which she is named on. It appears that had I taken proper legal precautions with documentation, or a company/trust, where that money would have gone, instead of my checking accounts, elsewhere, I would have still been able to be the legal proprietor of the resulting cash. I can't quite remember the details, but it as something that was explained to me afterward, and I honestly think I just tuned it out, because it made me sick to know I could have held on to my wealth. Perhaps a lawyer can chime in? Again, much of the lack of information and every misstep taken was because of dealing with people that are accustomed to traditional assets and will not deviate from it. Crypto is different and is treated differently. It is so important to know the strengths and weaknesses when going into litigation about something that people don't understand.
- Some more I can think of, but this post is getting way out of hand in size. Feel free to comment/suggest your own and I'll add more to the comments.

Credits to: u/nanoissuperior Thanks for your post, it inspired me to write this one. Anyone, any karma you feels needs to go his way, for providing the source of inspiration, please give to O-OP.

TL;DR: Wife, having contributed $0 during entire marriage, waited until I cashed out all my crypto at the top of the bull market in January 2018, for a nice seven-figure amount, and then immediately divorced me for the money.

Edit: added TL;DR
submitted by mijalis to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update

05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
24-NOV-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#msg53171045
24-DEC-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53430396#msg53430396
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario or a Bear Scenario.
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-? 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/iGXd6tX.png
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.
Bull Scenario
The bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/KYg0V4j.png
INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far of the 2019 bull market, into the 23-OCT-2019 low.
This 4-month decline had initially appeared to have completed an INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history.
However, since the spike high on 26-OCT-2019, the market has steadily sold-off and now returned back to the 23-OCT-2019 low; and hence, erasing the entire late OCT surge. The surge is now being considered as a B-wave as part of an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback. In hindsight, it ought to have been obvious this Thanksgiving Turkey isn’t cooked yet:
“B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often ‘unconfirmed’ by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ‘There is something wrong with this market,’ chances are it's a B wave.” —Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behavior; A.J. Frost, Robert Prechter.
From the B-wave high set on 26-OCT-2019, C-wave of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and is expected to conclude at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [AVG] @5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [MAX] @4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?] 
In addition to the aforementioned support zones, the following additional midway Fibonacci zones can be sought as support for this current INTERMEDIATE(2) decline, using BITSTAMP:
@7055: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.500 @6280: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.618 @5170: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.786 
Summary of support zones, using BITSTAMP: 7230, 7055, 6280, 5425, 5170, 4350
At time of writing, price is currently meandering between the first two aforementioned support levels.
Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence to resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618 @54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/Mz3IHcD.png
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario
The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.
PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 BITSTAMP —a decline to this point ought to signal the goose is cooked and market has favoured to deflate.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/OZjUq7g.png
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/fzmPfhy.png
The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…
—ETH: https://i.imgur.com/AwmCpAh.png
Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Thanksgiving!
UPDATES: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53197756#msg53197756
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

The Decade in Blockchain — 2010 to 2020 in Review

2010

February — The first ever cryptocurrency exchange, Bitcoin Market, is established. The first trade takes place a month later.
April — The first public bitcoin trade takes place: 1000BTC traded for $30 at an exchange rate of 0.03USD/1BTC
May — The first real-world bitcoin transaction is undertaken by Laszlo Hanyecz, who paid 10000BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas (Approximately $25 USD)
June — Bitcoin developer Gavin Andreson creates a faucet offering 5 free BTC to the public
July — First notable usage of the word “blockchain” appears on BitcoinTalk forum. Prior to this, it was referred to as ‘Proof-of-Work chain’
July — Bitcoin exchange named Magic The Gathering Online eXchange—also known as Mt. Gox—established
August —Bitcoin protocol bug leads to emergency hard fork
December — Satoshi Nakamoto ceases communication with the world

2011

January — One-quarter of the eventual total of 21M bitcoins have been generated
February — Bitcoin reaches parity for the first time with USD
April — Bitcoin reaches parity with EUR and GBP
June — WikiLeaks begins accepting Bitcoin donations
June — Mt. Gox hacked, resulting in suspension of trading and a precipitous price drop for Bitcoin
August — First Bitcoin Improvement Proposal: BIP Purpose and Guidelines
October — Litecoin released
December — Bitcoin featured as a major plot element in an episode of ‘The Good Wife’ as 9.45 million viewers watch.

2012

May — Bitcoin Magazine, founded by Mihai Alisie and Vitalik Buterin, publishes first issue
July — Government of Estonia begins incorporating blockchain into digital ID efforts
September — Bitcoin Foundation created
October — BitPay reports having over 1,000 merchants accepting bitcoin under its payment processing service
November — First Bitcoin halving to 25 BTC per block

2013

February — Reddit begins accepting bitcoins for Gold memberships
March — Cyprus government bailout levies bank accounts with over $100k. Flight to Bitcoin results in major price spike.
May —Total Bitcoin value surpasses 1 billion USD with 11M Bitcoin in circulation
May — The first cryptocurrency market rally and crash takes place. Prices rise from $13 to $220, and then drop to $70
June — First major cryptocurrency theft. 25,000 BTC is stolen from Bitcoin forum founder
July — Mastercoin becomes the first project to conduct an ICO
August — U.S. Federal Court issues opinion that Bitcoin is a currency or form of money
October — The FBI shuts down dark web marketplace Silk Road, confiscating approximately 26,000 bitcoins
November — Vitalik Buterin releases the Ethereum White Paper: “A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform
December — The first commit to the Ethereum codebase takes place

2014

January — Vitalik Buterin announces Ethereum at the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami
February — HMRC in the UK classifies Bitcoin as private money
March — Newsweek claims Dorian Nakamoto is Bitcoin creator. He is not
April — Gavin Wood releases the Ethereum Yellow Paper: “Ethereum: A Secure Decentralised Generalised Transaction Ledger
June — Ethereum Foundation established in Zug, Switzerland
June — US Marshals Service auctions off 30,000 Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road. All are purchased by venture capitalist Tim Draper
July — Ethereum token launch raises 31,591 BTC ($18,439,086) over 42 days
September — TeraExchange launches first U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Bitcoin over-the-counter swap
October — ConsenSys is founded by Joe Lubin
December — By year’s end, Paypal, Zynga, u/, Expedia, Newegg, Dell, Dish Network, and Microsoft are all accepting Bitcoin for payments

2015

January — Coinbase opens up the first U.S-based cryptocurrency exchange
February — Stripe initiates bitcoin payment integration for merchants
April — NASDAQ initiates blockchain trial
June — NYDFS releases final version of its BitLicense virtual currency regulations
July — Ethereum’s first live mainnet release—Frontier—launched.
August — Augur, the first token launch on the Ethereum network takes place
September — R3 consortium formed with nine financial institutions, increases to over 40 members within six months
October — Gemini exchange launches, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss
November — Announcement of first zero knowledge proof, ZK-Snarks
December — Linux Foundation establishes Hyperledger project

2016

January — Zcash announced
February — HyperLedger project announced by Linux Foundation with thirty founding members
March — Second Ethereum mainnet release, Homestead, is rolled out.
April — The DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) launches a 28-day crowdsale. After one month, it raises an Ether value of more than US$150M
May — Chinese Financial Blockchain Shenzhen Consortium launches with 31 members
June — The DAO is attacked with 3.6M of the 11.5M Ether in The DAO redirected to the attacker’s Ethereum account
July — The DAO attack results in a hard fork of the Ethereum Blockchain to recover funds. A minority group rejecting the hard fork continues to use the original blockchain renamed Ethereum Classic
July — Second Bitcoin halving to 12.5BTC per block mined
November — CME Launches Bitcoin Price Index

2017

January — Bitcoin price breaks US$1,000 for the first time in three years
February — Enterprise Ethereum Alliance formed with 30 founding members, over 150 members six months later
March — Multiple applications for Bitcoin ETFs rejected by the SEC
April — Bitcoin is officially recognized as currency by Japan
June — EOS begins its year-long ICO, eventually raising $4 billion
July — Parity hack exposes weaknesses in multisig wallets
August — Bitcoin Cash forks from the Bitcoin Network
October — Ethereum releases Byzantium soft fork network upgrade, part one of Metropolis
September — China bans ICOs
October — Bitcoin price surpasses $5,000 USD for the first time
November — Bitcoin price surpasses $10,000 USD for the first time
December — Ethereum Dapp Cryptokitties goes viral, pushing the Ethereum network to its limits

2018


January — Ethereum price peaks near $1400 USD
March — Google bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency
March — Twitter bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency
April — 2018 outpaces 2017 with $6.3 billion raised in token launches in the first four months of the year
April — EU government commits $300 million to developing blockchain projects
June — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission states that Ether is not a security.
July — Over 100,000 ERC20 tokens created
August — New York Stock Exchange owner announces Bakkt, a federally regulated digital asset exchange
October — Bitcoin’s 10th birthday
November — VC investment in blockchain tech surpasses $1 billion
December — 90% of banks in the US and Europe report exploration of blockchain tech

2019

January — Coinstar machines begin selling cryptocurrency at grocery stores across the US
February — Ethereum’s Constantinople hard fork is released, part two of Metropolis
April — Bitcoin surpasses 400 million total transactions
June — Facebook announces Libra
July — United States senate holds hearings titled ‘Examining Regulatory Frameworks for Digital Currencies and Blockchain”
August — Ethereum developer dominance reaches 4x that of any other blockchain
October — Over 80 million distinct Ethereum addresses have been created
September — Santander bank settles both sides of a $20 million bond on Ethereum
November — Over 3000 Dapps created. Of them, 2700 are built on Ethereum
submitted by blockstasy to CryptoTechnology [link] [comments]

10 things I wish someone had told me when I was learning to trade crypto

While I consider myself an amateur trader and a small-scale investor, over the 2+ years of trading crypto I've learned some things I'd like to share with you all, but mostly with those who are making their first steps into the uncharted cryptoland.
  1. Just as with anything else in life, trading cryptocurrencies is context dependent. That means you should remain a healthy sceptic about general truths, universal rules and things that "everyone knows". Consider the famous "buy low sell high" dictum. The definition of high and low is subjective in most cases since it depends on your timescale, goals and trading strategy. If you’re a hodler, as are many of the fellow redditors here, your high and low will differ dramatically compared to the day trader's.
  2. It is for the same reason that bulls and bears don't really matter. Whether you're 'bullish' or 'bearish' depends on your strategy and timescale. Consider this: to someone hodling BTC since 2013 a dip here or there (even a prolonged one) makes little difference because the price of BTC over the time continues to grow monstrously – you can call it one long-term bull market.
  3. At some point, you'll bump (or you already have) into something that is called 'technical analysis'. Let me save you some time (and money, probably) by telling you this: technical analysis is neither technical, nor is it very analytical. While many traders regard TA to be a scientific way (supposedly based on mathematics) to read and predict the market moves, TA has little to do with any formal science. Differently from the surrounding physical world, we are not aware of any physical laws that govern our human behavior, including markets. If it was possible to mathematically calculate and with certainty predict market moves, the big buck guys in Wall Street would have already done it. Think about the major financial crises for a moment – just like the Spanish Inquisition, nobody (well, almost nobody) ever expected one. Does it mean TA – trends, chart patterns, MACD, RSI, Elliot wave count, etc. – is a complete rubbish? I wouldn't go as far as to claim that. It is somewhat helpful – if only a little, TA still gives you a feel of the current market mood. TA also does one other thing pretty accurately: it graphically represents historic data of human behavior in the financial markets. Surely you can benefit from that? Or do you? This brings me to another point...
  4. Beware of historical analogies and 'I knew it all along' thing. As humans, we are prone to hindsight bias, a tendency, after an event has occurred, to see it as having been easily predictable. We are all blinded by hindsight bias because our brain looks for simplistic linear link between cause and effect. This way when an unexpected event happens, the brain uses the knew-it-all-along mode to cope with cognitive dissonance and make sense of the surrounding world. While trading hindsight bias harms you in two ways: a) it drains you psychologically for not making 'the right' decisions in the past, and by luring you into oversimplified historic analogies, b) it creates a false sense of investment security at the present time. Just look at everyone complaining they've sold their BTC at the worst possible time (as a matter of fact, I am no different – I still autodestructively loathe my decision to liquidate a large portion of my BTC portfolio after the BTC price hiked to 8k). It is also very tempting to think you wouldn't miss 'the next bitcoin'. The problem is, though, that it is incredibly difficult if at all possible to spot such an opportunity. You have to be either lucky or extremely well informed (and lucky) to capitalize early on such opportunity. In reality, it's very difficult to differentiate between useless information (noise) and something that truly matters (signal). Which brings me yet to another point...
  5. Stop being a news junkie and start filtering what you read/heasee. If you don't, at some point in time the quantity of consumed news will start to impact your decisions and it will begin to negatively correlate with the net gain of your investment portfolio. Instead of reading news nonstop, better educate yourself – dive deep into the market fundamentals and the technology you're dealing with. This way it will be easier for you to spot new lucrative investment opportunities when the time comes.
  6. Accept the fact that idiots also happen to make lots of money and move on. Multiple times too, if they're lucky ones. However, the net worth of (lucky) idiot doesn't mean you should imitate him and become one. Some two months ago a Dutch father of two young children sold his family's house, bought BTC and other cryptocurrencies, and relocated his family to a rented property. After the recent spike in BTC price the guy's net worth must have increased substantially. So, is he an idiot? Absolutely! It is only a question of time before he ruins his own and his family's life with some incredibly reckless financial decision.
  7. Try to understand the motives governing your decisions and act (or don't act) accordingly. If your actions are about to be driven by extreme emotions such as fear, panic or excitement – stop immediately and reevaluate the situation. Otherwise you'll end up belonging to the FOMO buyepanic seller club aka the money losers. If you want to stay on the earning side long term, you must keep your head cool and think clearly.
  8. Day trading is probably not for you. Consider this: evidence in neuroscience research shows that we are a loss-averse species. For this we should thank our stone age ancestors who had barely enough food, shelter and belongings to survive in a very adverse world. Losing even a little of what they had meant their existence was in jeopardy. This explains why contemporary humans prefer avoiding financial loss to making financial gain. Neuroscientists claim that losing money activates the same area of the brain that responds to mortal danger. This is why in order to do day trading you must have A LOT of self-control and balls of steel – there are many ups and downs during a single day. It drains you emotionally, you end up being addicted to adrenaline, your fiancée hates it, and the hodlers will probably outperform you in the long run anyway.
  9. Volatility is your friend. Over time BTC volatility makes the coin stronger, not weaker. While wild swings in price makes BTC almost impossible to use as a currency, volatility is good from the financial asset point of view. Traders and investors dealing with BTC get used to huge and sudden price hikes and dips. Unlike for any 'stable' stock of any prominent multinational corporation, even substantial and unexpected shocks will not undermine the confidence in BTC. BTW, best of luck to everyone planning to short BTC. :)
  10. Make small mistakes, learn from them, get wiser, err less. In your childhood days, you needed the experience of burning your hand with fire so that for the rest of your life you wouldn't need to think about the painful experience. That information is now hardwired in your brain and helps you to avoid getting harmed. If you've just started trading crypto, expect to make mistakes and prepare to learn from them. It's only after you get into FOMO, get panicked big time, take too big a risk, get out too early only to jump in at the worst possible time, ONLY and ONLY then you'll start to improve.
The Road to Wisdom
The road to wisdom? —Well, it's plain and simple to express: Err and err and err again, but less and less and less. — Piet Hein
Hope that was helpful.
submitted by ItsGentle to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update

05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
24-NOV-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53171045#msg53171045
24-DEC-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Christmas Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53430396#msg53430396
Summary: Bitcoin remains in a bull market with an outlook to exceed the 2017 high. However, a price move below $5000 suggests Bitcoin is in a bear market, with price headed to break below the 2018 lows. The majority of Altcoins favour an extended bear market unless an intervention can be coordinated. The outlook for the stockmarket, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario or a Bear Scenario.
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-? 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/FOZu1mH.png
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway. The majority of Altcoins favour an ongoing bear market.
Bull Scenario
The bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/tw6ZguX.png
Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and has thus far declined 55% into the low of 18-DEC-2019.
The structure of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline has thus far unfolded as three A-B-C waves of MINOR degree as follows:
—Wave-A decline started at the high of 26-JUN-2019 and completed as a complex structure at the low of 23-OCT-2019.
—Wave-B bounce started at the low of 23-OCT-2019 when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history and a simple structure completed at the high of 26-OCT-2019.
—Wave-C decline has been underway since the high of 26-OCT-2019. At the low of 18-DEC-2019, Wave-C reached a Fibonacci 0.618% of Wave-A in length on notable BITFINEX and COINBASE exchanges; in addition, created positive divergence of price against momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe.
Given the potential of a completed correction as described in the aforementioned A-B-C decline, the market has arrived at a juncture to consider the end of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline at the 18-DEC-2019 low.
To provide any credibility to this consideration, price is required to rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low and exceed the high of 29-NOV-2019. In addition, price Is required to unfold in five impulsive i-ii-iii-iv-v rising waves. Thus far as of Christmas Eve, price has risen in one wave from the 18-DEC-2019 low and is below the 29-NOV-2019 high.
Alternatively, the INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline is still to further subdivide and extend lower. A decline below the 18-DEC-2019 low confirms an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave decline. The following Fibonacci-based levels may be sought as support zones to conclude the pullback; using COINBASE pricing:
@5431: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. @5374: MINOR C = MINOR A * 0.786 @4358: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE(1) wave from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?] 
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/6ORFqnV.png
Using the Greyscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) as a proxy to Bitcoin, the rise from the 18-DEC-2019 low thus far, as of Christmas Eve, appears corrective. Therefore, price action currently favours an ongoing decline:
—GBTC: https://i.imgur.com/W5TNedb.png
Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence and resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618 @54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618 
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/PnMZf9x.png
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario
The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.
PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 COINBASE —a decline to this point ought to signal the market has favoured to deflate.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/sOefCp8.png
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/fJGOI7e.png
The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…
—ETH: https://i.imgur.com/HAqzXoE.png
—LTC: https://i.imgur.com/OoZOuMa.png
—XRP: https://i.imgur.com/hNGFkpw.png
Stockmarket
The outlook for the major global equity stockmarkets, in particular the USA, is extremely bullish.
From the 2009 low of the great financial crises, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has risen in four PRIMARY degree waves, with a fifth and final rising wave underway which began from the low of 2018.
In 2020, the stockmarket will be entering its 11th bull market year since the low of 2009. Fibonacci numbers next in sequence are 13, 21, 34. Therefore, the stockmarket isn’t likely to run into major headwinds until 2022; or until 2030 if the bull market extends to 21 years:
—DJIA (1915-2019) https://i.imgur.com/h65uK1h.png
—DJIA (2009-2019): https://i.imgur.com/Jltyekg.png
Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the UK FTSE100 has been directionless. With clarity now emerging on Brexit since the 12-DEC-2019 UK election, the FTSE100 is poised to resume a strong bull market:
—FTSE100 (1988-2019): https://i.imgur.com/4omkDHD.png
Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Merry Christmas!
submitted by 12345abcde00001 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Frequently Asked Questions and Information Thread

This FAQ and information thread serves to inform both new and existing users about common Bitcoin topics that readers coming to this Bitcoin subreddit may have. This is a living and breathing document, which will change over time. If you have suggestions on how to change it, please comment below or message the mods.
What is /btc?
The /btc reddit community was originally created as a community to discuss bitcoin. It quickly gained momentum in August 2015 when the bitcoin block size debate heightened. On the legacy /bitcoin subreddit it was discovered that moderators were heavily censoring discussions that were not inline with their own opinions.
Once realized, the subreddit subscribers began to openly question the censorship which led to thousands of redditors being banned from the /bitcoin subreddit. A large number of redditors switched to other subreddits such as /bitcoin_uncensored and /btc. For a run-down on the history of censorship, please read A (brief and incomplete) history of censorship in /bitcoin by John Blocke and /Bitcoin Censorship, Revisted by John Blocke. As yet another example, /bitcoin censored 5,683 posts and comments just in the month of September 2017 alone. This shows the sheer magnitude of censorship that is happening, which continues to this day. Read a synopsis of /bitcoin to get the full story and a complete understanding of why people are so upset with /bitcoin's censorship. Further reading can be found here and here with a giant collection of information regarding these topics.
Why is censorship bad for Bitcoin?
As demonstrated above, censorship has become prevalent in almost all of the major Bitcoin communication channels. The impacts of censorship in Bitcoin are very real. "Censorship can really hinder a society if it is bad enough. Because media is such a large part of people’s lives today and it is the source of basically all information, if the information is not being given in full or truthfully then the society is left uneducated [...] Censorship is probably the number one way to lower people’s right to freedom of speech." By censoring certain topics and specific words, people in these Bitcoin communication channels are literally being brain washed into thinking a certain way, molding the reader in a way that they desire; this has a lasting impact especially on users who are new to Bitcoin. Censoring in Bitcoin is the direct opposite of what the spirit of Bitcoin is, and should be condemned anytime it occurs. Also, it's important to think critically and independently, and have an open mind.
Why do some groups attempt to discredit /btc?
This subreddit has become a place to discuss everything Bitcoin-related and even other cryptocurrencies at times when the topics are relevant to the overall ecosystem. Since this subreddit is one of the few places on Reddit where users will not be censored for their opinions and people are allowed to speak freely, truth is often said here without the fear of reprisal from moderators in the form of bans and censorship. Because of this freedom, people and groups who don't want you to hear the truth with do almost anything they can to try to stop you from speaking the truth and try to manipulate readers here. You can see many cited examples of cases where special interest groups have gone out of their way to attack this subreddit and attempt to disrupt and discredit it. See the examples here.
What is the goal of /btc?
This subreddit is a diverse community dedicated to the success of bitcoin. /btc honors the spirit and nature of Bitcoin being a place for open and free discussion about Bitcoin without the interference of moderators. Subscribers at anytime can look at and review the public moderator logs. This subreddit does have rules as mandated by reddit that we must follow plus a couple of rules of our own. Make sure to read the /btc wiki for more information and resources about this subreddit which includes information such as the benefits of Bitcoin, how to get started with Bitcoin, and more.
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a digital currency, also called a virtual currency, which can be transacted for a low-cost nearly instantly from anywhere in the world. Bitcoin also powers the blockchain, which is a public immutable and decentralized global ledger. Unlike traditional currencies such as dollars, bitcoins are issued and managed without the need for any central authority whatsoever. There is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. As such, it is more resistant to wild inflation and corrupt banks. With Bitcoin, you can be your own bank. Read the Bitcoin whitepaper to further understand the schematics of how Bitcoin works.
What is Bitcoin Cash?
Bitcoin Cash (ticker symbol: BCH) is an updated version of Bitcoin which solves the scaling problems that have been plaguing Bitcoin Core (ticker symbol: BTC) for years. Bitcoin (BCH) is just a continuation of the Bitcoin project that allows for bigger blocks which will give way to more growth and adoption. You can read more about Bitcoin on BitcoinCash.org or read What is Bitcoin Cash for additional details.
How do I buy Bitcoin?
You can buy Bitcoin on an exchange or with a brokerage. If you're looking to buy, you can buy Bitcoin with your credit card to get started quickly and safely. There are several others places to buy Bitcoin too; please check the sidebar under brokers, exchanges, and trading for other go-to service providers to begin buying and trading Bitcoin. Make sure to do your homework first before choosing an exchange to ensure you are choosing the right one for you.
How do I store my Bitcoin securely?
After the initial step of buying your first Bitcoin, you will need a Bitcoin wallet to secure your Bitcoin. Knowing which Bitcoin wallet to choose is the second most important step in becoming a Bitcoin user. Since you are investing funds into Bitcoin, choosing the right Bitcoin wallet for you is a critical step that shouldn’t be taken lightly. Use this guide to help you choose the right wallet for you. Check the sidebar under Bitcoin wallets to get started and find a wallet that you can store your Bitcoin in.
Why is my transaction taking so long to process?
Bitcoin transactions typically confirm in ~10 minutes. A confirmation means that the Bitcoin transaction has been verified by the network through the process known as mining. Once a transaction is confirmed, it cannot be reversed or double spent. Transactions are included in blocks.
If you have sent out a Bitcoin transaction and it’s delayed, chances are the transaction fee you used wasn’t enough to out-compete others causing it to be backlogged. The transaction won’t confirm until it clears the backlog. This typically occurs when using the Bitcoin Core (BTC) blockchain due to poor central planning.
If you are using Bitcoin (BCH), you shouldn't encounter these problems as the block limits have been raised to accommodate a massive amount of volume freeing up space and lowering transaction costs.
Why does my transaction cost so much, I thought Bitcoin was supposed to be cheap?
As described above, transaction fees have spiked on the Bitcoin Core (BTC) blockchain mainly due to a limit on transaction space. This has created what is called a fee market, which has primarily been a premature artificially induced price increase on transaction fees due to the limited amount of block space available (supply vs. demand). The original plan was for fees to help secure the network when the block reward decreased and eventually stopped, but the plan was not to reach that point until some time in the future, around the year 2140. This original plan was restored with Bitcoin (BCH) where fees are typically less than a single penny per transaction.
What is the block size limit?
The original Bitcoin client didn’t have a block size cap, however was limited to 32MB due to the Bitcoin protocol message size constraint. However, in July 2010 Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto introduced a temporary 1MB limit as an anti-DDoS measure. The temporary measure from Satoshi Nakamoto was made clear three months later when Satoshi said the block size limit can be increased again by phasing it in when it’s needed (when the demand arises). When introducing Bitcoin on the cryptography mailing list in 2008, Satoshi said that scaling to Visa levels “would probably not seem like a big deal.”
What is the block size debate all about anyways?
The block size debate boils down to different sets of users who are trying to come to consensus on the best way to scale Bitcoin for growth and success. Scaling Bitcoin has actually been a topic of discussion since Bitcoin was first released in 2008; for example you can read how Satoshi Nakamoto was asked about scaling here and how he thought at the time it would be addressed. Fortunately Bitcoin has seen tremendous growth and by the year 2013, scaling Bitcoin had became a hot topic. For a run down on the history of scaling and how we got to where we are today, see the Block size limit debate history lesson post.
What is a hard fork?
A hard fork is when a block is broadcast under a new and different set of protocol rules which is accepted by nodes that have upgraded to support the new protocol. In this case, Bitcoin diverges from a single blockchain to two separate blockchains (a majority chain and a minority chain).
What is a soft fork?
A soft fork is when a block is broadcast under a new and different set of protocol rules, but the difference is that nodes don’t realize the rules have changed, and continue to accept blocks created by the newer nodes. Some argue that soft forks are bad because they trick old-unupdated nodes into believing transactions are valid, when they may not actually be valid. This can also be defined as coercion, as explained by Vitalik Buterin.
Doesn't it hurt decentralization if we increase the block size?
Some argue that by lifting the limit on transaction space, that the cost of validating transactions on individual nodes will increase to the point where people will not be able to run nodes individually, giving way to centralization. This is a false dilemma because at this time there is no proven metric to quantify decentralization; although it has been shown that the current level of decentralization will remain with or without a block size increase. It's a logical fallacy to believe that decentralization only exists when you have people all over the world running full nodes. The reality is that only people with the income to sustain running a full node (even at 1MB) will be doing it. So whether it's 1MB, 2MB, or 32MB, the costs of doing business is negligible for the people who can already do it. If the block size limit is removed, this will also allow for more users worldwide to use and transact introducing the likelihood of having more individual node operators. Decentralization is not a metric, it's a tool or direction. This is a good video describing the direction of how decentralization should look.
Additionally, the effects of increasing the block capacity beyond 1MB has been studied with results showing that up to 4MB is safe and will not hurt decentralization (Cornell paper, PDF). Other papers also show that no block size limit is safe (Peter Rizun, PDF). Lastly, through an informal survey among all top Bitcoin miners, many agreed that a block size increase between 2-4MB is acceptable.
What now?
Bitcoin is a fluid ever changing system. If you want to keep up with Bitcoin, we suggest that you subscribe to /btc and stay in the loop here, as well as other places to get a healthy dose of perspective from different sources. Also, check the sidebar for additional resources. Have more questions? Submit a post and ask your peers for help!
submitted by BitcoinXio to btc [link] [comments]

Greek Bank Runs Starting? Cyprus effect anyone?

Greek Bank Runs Starting? Cyprus effect anyone? submitted by btcnoodle to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

An extensive guide for cashing out bitcoin and cryptocurrencies into private banks

Hey guys.
Merry Xmas !
I am coming back to you with a follow up post, as I have helped many people cash out this year and I have streamlined the process. After my original post, I received many requests to be more specific and provide more details. I thought that after the amazing rally we have been attending over the last few months, and the volatility of the last few days, it would be interesting to revisit more extensively.
The attitude of banks around crypto is changing slowly, but it is still a tough stance. For the first partial cash out I operated around a year ago for a client, it took me months to find a bank. They wouldn’t want to even consider the case and we had to knock at each and every door. Despite all my contacts it was very difficult back in the days. This has changed now, and banks have started to open their doors, but there is a process, a set of best practices and codes one has to follow.
I often get requests from crypto guys who are very privacy-oriented, and it takes me months to have them understand that I am bound by Swiss law on banking secrecy, and I am their ally in this onboarding process. It’s funny how I have to convince people that banks are legit, while on the other side, banks ask me to show that crypto millionaires are legit. I have a solid background in both banking and in crypto so I manage to make the bridge, but yeah sometimes it is tough to reconcile the two worlds. I am a crypto enthusiast myself and I can say that after years of work in the banking industry I have grown disillusioned towards banks as well, like many of you. Still an account in a Private bank is convenient and powerful. So let’s get started.
There are two different aspects to your onboarding in a Swiss Private bank, compliance-wise.
*The origin of your crypto wealth
*Your background (residence, citizenship and probity)
These two aspects must be documented in-depth.
How to document your crypto wealth. Each new crypto millionaire has a different story. I may detail a few fun stories later in this post, but at the end of the day, most of crypto rich I have met can be categorized within the following profiles: the miner, the early adopter, the trader, the corporate entity, the black market, the libertarian/OTC buyer. The real question is how you prove your wealth is legit.
1. Context around the original amount/investment Generally speaking, your first crypto purchase may not be documented. But the context around this acquisition can be. I have had many cases where the original amount was bought through Mtgox, and no proof of purchase could be provided, nor could be documented any Mtgox claim. That’s perfectly fine. At some point Mtgox amounted 70% of the bitcoin transactions globally, and people who bought there and managed to withdraw and keep hold of their bitcoins do not have any Mtgox claim. This is absolutely fine. However, if you can show me the record of a wire from your bank to Tisbane (Mtgox's parent company) it's a great way to start.
Otherwise, what I am trying to document here is the following: I need context. If you made your first purchase by saving from summer jobs, show me a payroll. Even if it was USD 2k. If you acquired your first bitcoins from mining, show me the bills of your mining equipment from 2012 or if it was through a pool mine, give me your slushpool account ref for instance. If you were given bitcoin against a service you charged, show me an invoice.
2. Tracking your wealth until today and making sense of it. What I have been doing over the last few months was basically educating compliance officers. Thanks God, the blockchain is a global digital ledger! I have been telling my auditors and compliance officers they have the best tool at their disposal to lead a proper investigation. Whether you like it or not, your wealth can be tracked, from address to address. You may have thought all along this was a bad feature, but I am telling you, if you want to cash out, in the context of Private Banking onboarding, tracking your wealth through the block explorer is a boon. We can see the inflows, outflows. We can see the age behind an address. An early adopter who bought 1000 BTC in 2010, and let his bitcoin behind one address and held thus far is legit, whether or not he has a proof of purchase to show. That’s just common sense. My job is to explain that to the banks in a language they understand.
Let’s have a look at a few examples and how to document the few profiles I mentioned earlier.
The trader. I love traders. These are easy cases. I have a ton of respect for them. Being a trader myself in investment banks for a decade earlier in my career has taught me that controlling one’s emotions and having the discipline to impose oneself some proper risk management system is really really hard. Further, being able to avoid the exchange bankruptcy and hacks throughout crypto history is outstanding. It shows real survival instinct, or just plain blissed ignorance. In any cases traders at exchange are easy cases to corroborate since their whole track record is potentially available. Some traders I have met have automated their trading and have shown me more than 500k trades done over the span of 4 years. Obviously in this kind of scenario I don’t show everything to the bank to avoid information overload, and prefer to do some snacking here and there. My strategy is to show the early trades, the most profitable ones, explain the trading strategy and (partially expose) the situation as of now with id pages of the exchanges and current balance. Many traders have become insensitive to the risk of parking their crypto at exchange as they want to be able to trade or to grasp an occasion any minute, so they generally do not secure a substantial portion on the blockchain which tends to make me very nervous.
The early adopter. Provided that he has not mixed his coin, the early adopter or “hodler” is not a difficult case either. Who cares how you bought your first 10k btc if you bought them below 3$ ? Even if you do not have a purchase proof, I would generally manage to find ways. We just have to corroborate the original 30’000 USD investment in this case. I mainly focus on three things here:
*proof of early adoption I have managed to educate some banks on a few evidences specifically related to crypto markets. For instance with me, an old bitcointalk account can serve as a proof of early adoption. Even an old reddit post from a few years ago where you say how much you despise this Ripple premined scam can prove to be a treasure readily available to show you were early.
*story telling Compliance officers like to know when, why and how. They are human being looking for simple answers to simple questions and they don’t want like to be played fool. Telling the truth, even without a proof can do wonders, and even though bluffing might still work because banks don’t fully understand bitcoin yet, it is a risky strategy that is less and less likely to pay off as they are getting more sophisticated by the day.
*micro transaction from an old address you control This is the killer feature. Send a $20 worth transaction from an old address to my company wallet and to one of my partner bank’s wallet and you are all set ! This is gold and considered a very solid piece of evidence. You can also do a microtransaction to your own wallet, but banks generally prefer transfer to their own wallet. Patience with them please. they are still learning.
*signature message Why do a micro transaction when you can sign a message and avoid potentially tainting your coins ?
*ICO millionaire Some clients made their wealth participating in ETH crowdsale or IOTA ICO. They were very easy to deal with obviously and the account opening was very smooth since we could evidence the GENESIS TxHash flow.
The miner Not so easy to proof the wealth is legit in that case. Most early miners never took screenshot of the blocks on bitcoin core, nor did they note down the block number of each block they mined. Until the the Slashdot article from August 2010 anyone could mine on his laptop, let his computer run overnight and wake up to a freshly minted block containing 50 bitcoins back in the days. Not many people were structured enough to store and secure these coins, avoid malwares while syncing the blockchain continuously, let alone document the mined blocks in the process. What was 50 BTC worth really for the early miners ? dust of dollars, games and magic cards… Even miners post 2010 are generally difficult to deal with in terms of compliance onboarding. Many pool mining are long dead. Deepbit is down for instance and the founders are MIA. So my strategy to proof mining activity is as follow:
*Focusing on IT background whenever possible. An IT background does help a lot to bring some substance to the fact you had the technical ability to operate a mining rig.
*Showing mining equipment receipts. If you mined on your own you must have bought the hardware to do so. For instance mining equipment receipts from butterfly lab from 2012-2013 could help document your case. Similarly, high electricity bill from your household on a consistent basis back in the day could help. I have already unlocked a tricky case in the past with such documents when the bank was doubtful.
*Wallet.dat files with block mining transactions from 2011 thereafter This obviously is a fantastic piece of evidence for both you and me if you have an old wallet and if you control an address that received original mined blocks, (even if the wallet is now empty). I will make sure compliance officers understand what it means, and as for the early adopter, you can prove your control over these wallet through a microtransaction. With these kind of addresses, I can show on the block explorer the mined block rewards hitting at regular time interval, and I can even spot when difficulty level increased or when halvening process happened.
*Poolmining account. Here again I have educated my partner bank to understand that a slush account opened in 2013 or an OnionTip presence was enough to corroborate mining activity. The block explorer then helps me to do the bridge with your current wallet.
*Describing your set up and putting it in context In the history of mining we had CPU, GPU, FPG and ASICs mining. I will describe your technical set up and explain why and how your set up was competitive at that time.
The corporate entity Remember 2012 when we were all convinced bitcoin would take over the world, and soon everyone would pay his coffee in bitcoin? How naïve we were to think transaction fees would remain low forever. I don’t blame bitcoin cash supporters; I once shared this dream as well. Remember when we thought global adoption was right around the corner and some brick and mortar would soon accept bitcoin transaction as a common mean of payment? Well, some shop actually did accept payment and held. I had a few cases as such of shops holders, who made it to the multi million mark holding and had invoices or receipts to proof the transactions. If you are organized enough to keep a record for these trades and are willing to cooperate for the documentation, you are making your life easy. The digital advertising business is also a big market for the bitcoin industry, and affiliates partner compensated in btc are common. It is good to show an invoice, it is better to show a contract. If you do not have a contract (which is common since all advertising deals are about ticking a check box on the website to accept terms and conditions), there are ways around that. If you are in that case, pm me.
The black market Sorry guys, I can’t do much for you officially. Not that I am judging you. I am a libertarian myself. It’s just already very difficult to onboard legit btc adopters, so the black market is a market I cannot afford to consider. My company is regulated so KYC and compliance are key for me if I want to stay in business. Behind each case I push forward I am risking the credibility and reputation I have built over the years. So I am sorry guys I am not risking it to make an extra buck. Your best hope is that crypto will eventually take over the world and you won’t need to cash out anyway. Or go find a Lithuanian bank that is light on compliance and cooperative.
The OTC buyer and the libertarian. Generally a very difficult case. If you bought your stack during your journey in Japan 5 years ago to a guy you never met again; or if you accumulated on https://localbitcoins.com/ and kept no record or lost your account, it is going to be difficult. Not impossible but difficult. We will try to build a case with everything else we have, and I may be able to onboard you. However I am risking a lot here so I need to be 100% confident you are legit, before I defend you. Come & see me in Geneva, and we will talk. I will run forensic services like elliptic, chainalysis, or scorechain on an extract of your wallet. If this scan does not raise too many red flags, then maybe we can work together ! If you mixed your coins all along your crypto history, and shredded your seeds because you were paranoid, or if you made your wealth mining professionally monero over the last 3 years but never opened an account at an exchange. ¯_(ツ)_/¯ I am not a magician and don’t get me wrong, I love monero, it’s not the point.
Cashing out ICOs Private companies or foundations who have ran an ICO generally have a very hard time opening a bank account. The few banks that accept such projects would generally look at 4 criteria:
*Seriousness of the project Extensive study of the whitepaper to limit the reputation risk
*AML of the onboarding process ICOs 1.0 have no chance basically if a background check of the investors has not been conducted
*Structure of the moral entity List of signatories, certificate of incumbency, work contract, premises...
*Fiscal conformity Did the company informed the authorities and seek a fiscal ruling.
For the record, I am not into the tax avoidance business, so people come to me with a set up and I see if I can make it work within the legal framework imposed to me.
First, stop thinking Switzerland is a “offshore heaven” Swiss banks have made deals with many governments for the exchange of fiscal information. If you are a French citizen, resident in France and want to open an account in a Private Bank in Switzerland to cash out your bitcoins, you will get slaughtered (>60%). There are ways around that, and I could refer you to good tax specialists for fiscal optimization, but I cannot organize it myself. It would be illegal for me. Swiss private banks makes it easy for you to keep a good your relation with your retail bank and continue paying your bills without headaches. They are integrated to SEPA, provide ebanking and credit cards.
For information, these are the kind of set up some of my clients came up with. It’s all legal; obviously I do not onboard clients that are not tax compliant. Further disclaimer: I did not contribute myself to these set up. Do not ask me to organize it for you. I won’t.
EU tricks
Swiss lump sum taxation Foreign nationals resident in Switzerland can be taxed on a lump-sum basis if they are not gainfully employed in our country. Under the lump-sum tax regime, foreign nationals taking residence in Switzerland may choose to pay an expense-based tax instead of ordinary income and wealth tax. Attractive cantons for the lump sum taxation are Zug, Vaud, Valais, Grisons, Lucerne and Berne. To make it short, you will be paying somewhere between 200 and 400k a year and all expenses will be deductible.
Switzerland has adopted a very friendly attitude towards crypto currency in general. There is a whole crypto valley in Zug now. 30% of ICOs are operated in Switzerland. The reason is that Switzerland has thrived for centuries on banking secrecy, and today with FATCA and exchange of fiscal info with EU, banking secrecy is dead. Regulators in Switzerland have understood that digital ledger technologies were a way to roll over this competitive advantage for the generations to come. Switzerland does not tax capital gains on crypto profits. The Finma has a very pragmatic approach. They have issued guidance- updated guidelines here. They let the business get organized and operate their analysis on a case per case basis. Only after getting a deep understanding of the market will they issue a global fintech license in 2019. This approach is much more realistic than legislations which try to regulate everything beforehand.
Italy new tax exemption. It’s a brand new fiscal exemption. Go to Aoste, get residency and you could be taxed a 100k/year for 10years. Yes, really.
Portugal What’s crazy in Europe is the lack of fiscal harmonization. Even if no one in Brussels dares admit it, every other country is doing fiscal dumping. Portugal is such a country and has proved very friendly fiscally speaking. I personally have a hard time trusting Europe. I have witnessed what happened in Greece over the last few years. Some of our ultra high net worth clients got stuck with capital controls. I mean no way you got out of crypto to have your funds confiscated at the next financial crisis! Anyway. FYI
Malta Generally speaking, if you get a residence somewhere you have to live there for a certain period of time. Being stuck in Italy is no big deal with Schengen Agreement, but in Malta it is a different story. In Malta, the ordinary residence scheme is more attractive than the HNWI residence scheme. Being an individual, you can hold a residence permit under this scheme and pay zero income tax in Malta in a completely legal way.
Monaco Not suitable for French citizens, but for other Ultra High Net worth individual, Monaco is worth considering. You need an account at a local bank as a proof of fortune, and this account generally has to be seeded with at least EUR500k. You also need a proof of residence. I do mean UHNI because if you don’t cash out minimum 30m it’s not interesting. Everything is expensive in Monaco. Real Estate is EUR 50k per square meter. A breakfast at Monte Carlo Bay hotel is 70 EUR. Monaco is sunny but sometimes it feels like a golden jail. Do you really want that for your kids?
Dubaï
  1. Set up a company in Dubaï, get your resident card.
  2. Spend one day every 6 month there
  3. ???
  4. Be tax free
US tricks Some Private banks in Geneva do have the license to manage the assets of US persons and U.S citizens. However, do not think it is a way to avoid paying taxes in the US. Opening an account at an authorized Swiss Private banks is literally the same tax-wise as opening an account at Fidelity or at Bank of America in the US. The only difference is that you will avoid all the horror stories. Horror stories are all real by the way. In Switzerland, if you build a decent case and answer all the questions and corroborate your case in depth, you will manage to convince compliance officers beforehand. When the money eventually hits your account, it is actually available and not frozen.
The IRS and FATCA require to file FBAR if an offshore account is open. However FBAR is a reporting requirement and does not have taxes related to holding an account outside the US. The taxes would be the same if the account was in the US. However penalties for non compliance with FBAR are very large. The tax liability management is actually performed through the management of the assets ( for exemple by maximizing long term capital gains and minimizing short term gains).
The case for Porto Rico. Full disclaimer here. I am not encouraging this. Have not collaborated on such tax avoidance schemes. if you are interested I strongly encourage you to seek a tax advisor and get a legal opinion. I am not responsible for anything written below. I am not going to say much because I am so afraid of uncle Sam that I prefer to humbly pass the hot potato to pwc From here all it takes is a good advisor and some creativity to be tax free on your crypto wealth if you are a US person apparently. Please, please please don’t ask me more. And read the disclaimer again.
Trust tricks Generally speaking I do not accept fringe fiscal situation because it puts me in a difficult situation to the banks I work with, and it is already difficult enough to defend a legit crypto case. Trust might be a way to optimize your fiscal situation. Belize. Bahamas. Seychelles. Panama, You name it. At the end of the day, what matters for Swiss Banks are the beneficial owner and the settlor. Get a legal opinion, get it done, and when you eventually knock at a private bank’s door, don’t say it was for fiscal avoidance you stupid ! You will get the door smashed upon you. Be smarter. It will work. My advice is just to have it done by a great tax specialist lawyer, even if it costs you some money, as the entity itself needs to be structured in a professional way. Remember that with trust you are dispossessing yourself off your wealth. Not something to be taken lightly.
“Anonymous” cash out. Right. I think I am not going into this topic, neither expose the ways to get it done. Pm me for details. I already feel a bit uncomfortable with all the info I have provided. I am just going to mention many people fear that crypto exchange might become reporting entities soon, and rightly so. This might happen anyday. You have been warned. FYI, this only works for non-US and large cash out.
The difference between traders an investors. Danmark, Holland and Germany all make a huge difference if you are a passive investor or if you are a trader. ICO is considered investing for instance and is not taxed, while trading might be considered as income and charged aggressively. I would try my best to protect you and put a focus on your investor profile whenever possible, so you don't have to pay 52% tax if you do not have to :D
Full cash out or partial cash out? People who have been sitting on crypto for long have grown an emotional and irrational link with their coins. They come to me and say, look, I have 50m in crypto but I would like to cash out 500k only. So first let me tell you that as a wealth manager my advice to you is to take some off the table. Doing a partial cash out is absolutely fine. The market is bullish. We are witnessing a redistribution of wealth at a global scale. Bitcoin is the real #occupywallstreet, and every one will discuss crypto at Xmas eve which will make the market even more supportive beginning 2018, especially with all hedge funds entering the scene. If you want to stay exposed to bitcoin and altcoins, and believe these techs will change the world, it’s just natural you want to keep some coins. In the meantime, if you have lived off pizzas over the last years, and have the means to now buy yourself an nice house and have an account at a private bank, then f***ing do it mate ! Buy physical gold with this account, buy real estate, have some cash at hands. Even though US dollar is worthless to your eyes, it’s good and convenient to have some. Also remember your wife deserves it ! And if you have no wife yet and you are socially awkward like the rest of us, then maybe cashing out partially will help your situation ;)
What the Private Banks expect. Joke aside, it is important you understand something. If you come around in Zurich to open a bank account and partially cash out, just don’t expect Private Banks will make an exception for you if you are small. You can’t ask them to facilitate your cash out, buy a 1m apartment with the proceeds of the sale, and not leave anything on your current account. It won’t work. Sadly, under 5m you are considered small in private banking. The bank is ok to let you open an account, provided that your kyc and compliance file are validated, but they will also want you to become a client and leave some money there to invest. This might me despicable, but I am just explaining you their rules. If you want to cash out, you should sell enough to be comfortable and have some left. Also expect the account opening to last at least 3-4 week if everything goes well. You can't just open an account overnight.
The cash out logistics. Cashing out 1m USD a day in bitcoin or more is not so hard.
Let me just tell you this: Even if you get a Tier 4 account with Kraken and ask Alejandro there to raise your limit over $100k per day, Even if you have a bitfinex account and you are willing to expose your wealth there, Even if you have managed to pass all the crazy due diligence at Bitstamp,
The amount should be fractioned to avoid risking your full wealth on exchange and getting slaughtered on the price by trading big quantities. Cashing out involves significant risks at all time. There is a security risk of compromising your keys, a counterparty risk, a fat finger risk. Let it be done by professionals. It is worth every single penny.
Most importantly, there is a major difference between trading on an exchange and trading OTC. Even though it’s not publicly disclosed some exchange like Kraken do have OTC desks. Trading on an exchange for a large amount will weight on the prices. Bitcoin is a thin market. In my opinion over 30% of the coins are lost in translation forever. Selling $10m on an exchange in a day can weight on the prices more than you’d think. And if you trade on a exchange, everything is shown on record, and you might wipe out the prices because on exchanges like bitstamp or kraken ultimately your counterparties are retail investors and the market depth is not huge. It is a bit better on Bitfinex. It is way better to trade OTC. Accessing the institutional OTC market is not easy, and that is also the reason why you should ask a regulated financial intermediary if we are talking about huge amounts.
Last point, always chose EUR as opposed to USD. EU correspondent banks won’t generally block institutional amounts. However we had the cases of USD funds frozen or delayed by weeks.
Most well-known OTC desks are Cumberlandmining (ask for Lucas), Genesis (ask for Martin), Bitcoin Suisse AG (ask for Niklas), circletrade, B2C2, or Altcoinomy (ask for Olivier)
Very very large whales can also set up escrow accounts for massive block trades. This world, where blocks over 30k BTC are exchanged between 2 parties would deserve a reddit thread of its own. Crazyness all around.
Your options: DIY or going through a regulated financial intermediary.
Execution trading is a job in itself. You have to be patient, be careful not to wipe out the order book and place limit orders, monitor the market intraday for spikes or opportunities. At big levels, for a large cash out that may take weeks, these kind of details will save you hundred thousands of dollars. I understand crypto holders are suspicious and may prefer to do it by themselves, but there are regulated entities who now offer the services. Besides, being a crypto millionaire is not a guarantee you will get institutional daily withdrawal limits at exchange. You might, but it will take you another round of KYC with them, and surprisingly this round might be even more aggressive that the ones at Private banks since exchange have gone under intense scrutiny by regulators lately.
The fees for cashing out through a regulated financial intermediary to help you with your cash out should be around 1-2% flat on the nominal, not more. And for this price you should get the full package: execution/monitoring of the trades AND onboarding in a private bank. If you are asked more, you are being abused.
Of course, you also have the option to do it yourself. It is a way more tedious and risky process. Compliance with the exchange, compliance with the private bank, trading BTC/fiat, monitoring the transfers…You will save some money but it will take you some time and stress. Further, if you approach a private bank directly, it will trigger a series of red flag to the banks. As I said in my previous post, they call a direct approach a “walk-in”. They will be more suspicious than if you were introduced by someone and won’t hesitate to show you high fees and load your portfolio with in-house products that earn more money to the banks than to you. Remember also most banks still do not understand crypto so you will have a lot of explanations to provide and you will have to start form scratch with them!
The paradox of crypto millionaires Most of my clients who made their wealth through crypto all took massive amount of risks to end up where they are. However, most of them want their bank account to be managed with a low volatility fixed income capital preservation risk profile. This is a paradox I have a hard time to explain and I think it is mainly due to the fact that most are distrustful towards banks and financial markets in general. Many clients who have sold their crypto also have a cash-out blues in the first few months. This is a classic situation. The emotions involved in hodling for so long, the relief that everything has eventually gone well, the life-changing dynamics, the difficulties to find a new motivation in life…All these elements may trigger a post cash-out depression. It is another paradox of the crypto rich who has every card in his hand to be happy, but often feel a bit sad and lonely. Sometimes, even though it’s not my job, I had to do some psychological support. A lot of clients have also become my friends, because we have the same age and went through the same “ordeal”. First world problem I know… Remember, cashing out is not the end. It’s actually the beginning. Don’t look back, don’t regret. Cash out partially, because it does not make sense to cash out in full, regret it and want back in. relax.
The race to cash out crypto billionaire and the concept of late exiter. The Winklevoss brothers are obviously the first of a series. There will be crypto billionaires. Many of them. At a certain level you can have a whole family office working for you to manage your assets and take care of your needs . However, let me tell you it’s is not because you made it so big that you should think you are a genius and know everything better than anyone. You should hire professionals to help you. Managing assets require some education around the investment vehicles and risk management strategies. Sorry guys but with all the respect I have for wallstreebet, AMD and YOLO stock picking, some discipline is necessary. The investors who have made money through crypto are generally early adopters. However I have started to see another profile popping up. They are not early adopters. They are late exiters. It is another way but just as efficient. Last week I met the first crypto millionaire I know who first bough bitcoin over 1000$. 55k invested at the beginning of this year. Late adopter & late exiter is a route that can lead to the million.
Last remarks. I know banks, bankers, and FIAT currencies are so last century. I know some of you despise them and would like to have them burn to the ground. With compliance officers taking over the business, I would like to start the fire myself sometimes. I hope this extensive guide has helped some of you. I am around if you need more details. I love my job despite all my frustration towards the banking industry because it makes me meet interesting people on a daily basis. I am a crypto enthusiast myself, and I do think this tech is here to stay and will change the world. Banks will have to adapt big time. Things have started to change already; they understand the threat is real. I can feel the generational gap in Geneva, with all these old bankers who don’t get what’s going on. They glaze at the bitcoin chart on CNBC in disbelief and they start to get it. This bitcoin thing is not a joke. Deep inside, as an early adopter who also intends to be a late exiter, as a libertarian myself, it makes me smile with satisfaction.
Cheers. @swisspb on telegram
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