Bitcoin hype worse than 'tulip mania', says Dutch central ...

Some very important points that most people do not understand about Bitcoin

Point 1)
Most people do not understand that you can't send money over internet, but only information. Bitcoin is the first digital settlement layer.
When I send a picture to someone on Facebook messenger, I don't actually send a picture. I send information about the pictures structure, and the picture gets restructured on the client side (the cellphone) of the user I send it to. Copy of the information is being sent, not the picture itself. So you can't send money over internet, it is not possible, only information.
If I have a bank account at some bank, and I send $50 dollars to another person in the same bank by using the banks website, then a transaction happens between two people within the same infrastructure, which is the banks back-end system and database. So the banks system just subtracts $50 dollars from one person and adds $50 dollars to another person. But no money has moved, only information has been edited. But if I send money to someone that uses another Bank, then this bank has its own infrastructure which is independent of the first. So Bank1 tells Bank2 that they have a user that wants to send money to a user of the other bank. So Bank1 subtracts $50 from User1, and Bank2 adds $50 to User2, but now Bank1 owes Bank2 $50, why? Because you can't send money over internet. So they have to settle the difference between them with some kind of a settlement system, (cash, gold or a third party like a central bank). This difference can be the result of many transactions between many users and can be millions of dollars of worth, the settlement can be done periodically for example every 6 months.
With Bitcoin, because of how the system works, it is almost as if you can send value over internet for the first time, even though you don't really send value, you still send information, but since the infrastructure is global, it is like the first example, it is as if the world has (one large bank infrastructure), that is fully automated and which no one controls.
This alone makes Bitcoin extremely valuable, because it is a trust less digital settlement layer which is extremely secure and not dependent on one particular nation or organisation.
Point 2)
There can never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. This is very hard for people to grasp. Because what do you mean there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin? It sounds like a game, such a scam... People do not understand that Bitcoin is not normal software. In normal software the developers can change the code as they want and publish the code when they want. They do not understand that Bitcoin is a software that is not like a normal software. You can't actually change the number even if the number is programmed in. Which of-course most people will deny, because it makes no sense for most people. They do not understand that even though it is theoretically possible to change it, it is practically almost impossible. It is theoretically possible for me to convince half of Sweden to burn half of their money, but practically impossible. Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't mean that it will happen within a time frame, or even in your lifetime. In order for the 21 million supply to change, most people in the Bitcoin community needs to agree on it, which is practically impossible. Miners have to change to the new protocol and so on. Not going to happen.
When gold treasures were lost in the past, someone else could find them. Gold practically never completely disappears, it is a chemical element. With Bitcoin, once it is lost it is practically lost forever (put aside quantum computing for now and other theoretical unforeseeable events). 21 million is only the upper theoretical limit. Bitcoin will be more and more scarce as time goes by. Gold is not like this. Gold has an inflation rate of 1,5% every year. The reason it is constant is because even if the stock gets bigger, the flow into the stock also gets bigger because of better mining capabilities, so you can look at it as constant inflation of 1.5% every year. With Bitcoin, not only do the stock to flow ratio go up every halvening, and the flow into bitcoin not only decreases with time, but almost goes into negative because of lost coins every year. This is completely insane and people do not understand this. If you combine this almost deflationary nature of Bitcoin with extreme bullish market sentiment then you will realize that no one knows what is going to happen in the future because wrapping your head around all this and to come to a conclusion about the Bitcoin price will make you sound absolutely delusional to most people.
Point 3)
People think that $100,000 bitcoin is wishful thinking and that there is not enough money in the world for Bitcoin to be worth millions of dollars. Which I can assure you is false. Bitcoin can even be worth $50 million dollars per coin, which would make 2 satoshi 1 dollar. Even if one Bitcoin transaction would cost 10 000 Satoshi. You might say, that's not possible, whats the point if one transaction is so expensive. Again, you don't need to actually do a transfer of money, as in the first example of point 1, virtual transactions on bank level can happen, or on Coinbase. You can send 100 satoshi to someone and pay 1 satoshi in fee "on the bank level", not on chain, banks or exchanges then will settle the difference as they want. At least with Bitcoin you have the option to be you own bank, even if that will cost you more, you still have the option. This is already happening in front of your eyes. Banks like Dutch ING, Deutsche bank, are already working on custody services for cryptocurrencies. And even exchanges want to operate as banks and exchanges like Coinbase are working to get license for this. This is already happening and it is the correct move forwards, a mix between the legacy banking system and cryptocurrencies. You can already spend your Bitcoin with Coinbase Visa Card or similar services. Most people are too lazy and stupid to operate like us with their own wallets, it is a fact well known.
In terms of the price, money inflow is not the same as market cap. Take for instance the following simple scenario. I own 100% of the shares of my own company and I decide to sell 10% of the company for 1 million USD, which will value my whole company at 10 million USD, so 1 million flow into my company leads to 10x market cap of 10 million USD. For Bitcoin to have 21 trillion market cap, Bitcoin does not need 21 trillion of money inflow. Bitcoin price is dependent on market sentiment, if the market sentiment is such that very few people want to sell their coins because the price keeps going up then you might have 100x market cap of the money inflow. So 1 billion USD in money inflow translates to 100 billion USD in market cap. The multiplier can be 10x, 2x or 50x, all depends on market sentiment and time period. So an inflow of 10 trillion USD in 10 years might lead to 100 trillion USD market cap of BTC and 5 million USD per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin value have no roof, the price might actually just keep going up and up and up and up and up. We have never had something that is absolutely scarce, and global, and seen as an alternative form of money, when the rest of the world keeps bubbling up. There is no limit on the BTC price because the whole world works with a bubbly system, and the way Bitcoin is price discovered, is a guaranteed insane BTC price in the future. Even $100 million USD per Bitcoin in 50 years before I am dead is possible.
Point 4)
Fiat does not need to die, and Bitcoin does not need to take over in order for Bitcoin to have "ridiculous price". No financial crisis is needed. Actually what you want is things to just continue as they have done in the last 10 years. No too extreme events. Just "small events" here and there. You can't change human nature, it is inevitable. Bitcoin is so ingrained into our world that there is no way back. There will be people with whole Bitcoin, and people without. Just like people with gold and stock investments and real estate, and people without those things. No insane events, this is all normal.
Point 5)
Bitcoin has won as the financial cryptocurrency. No flippening will happen. The only flippening will be with gold and fiat currencies. If I wanted to, I could have developed a system like PayPal in 1 month time, and it would be able to do 5000 transactions per second because I would use MySQL and SSD, but no one would use my service because they would not trust me because they have no idea who I am and what my service is, and there is no one to send money too, so the network is not there. Bitcoin has won because security and network effect is way more important than transactions per second. Transactions per second will be dealt with on bank level, exchange level, or layer 2 solutions. This is already clear to me. Bitcoin has won.
Point 6)
In order to understand Bitcoin and what will happen in the future, you have to be able to see things that are not in front of you. You can't compare Bitcoin to Tulip mania, or even Gold. Because something like Bitcoin has never existed before and you have to think about it's properties and try to understand it with human nature and with how the world works and how everything keeps increasing, and Bitcoin is the thing that does not increase in supply. You will eventually accept the unnatural thought of Bitcoin never stopping going up in value, which is something that is hard to come to terms with, because it feels unnatural, "and it could not possibly be so".
Point 7)
The Gini coefficient of Bitcoin is not a big deal. I used to think that it was unfair that some people had 1,000 BTC, 10,000 BTC, or even 50,000 BTC. And I was afraid that they might dump their coins into the market and crash it. I have now realised that these people are smart people and they think like me, and they won't just dump their whole BTC holding on the market as that might be a very bad move for them. It is like when a majority holder of a company, like Jeff Bezos and Amazon, understands that he can't sell all of his shares in one go as that would effect Amazon stock value too much and would not be smart. It is best to sell when the price goes up, but then when they sell the BTC will just be eaten up by other people, and they will be at a loss in the longer term. And the other thing is that perhaps there is no other smart place to put that fiat money, Bitcoin might just be the best place to keep those amounts of money. Someone with a very large holding has two options. He can either sell his BTC, in which case the price would go down but the Bitcoin would be spread out between potentially thousands of new users, or he might decide to never sell. If he decides to never sell, it is as if those Bitcoins are lost forever and that is good for the Bitcoin price and Bitcoin in general. If he decides to sell then Bitcoin will be divided more equally among many users which is also a good thing for Bitcoin because that increases the network effect, and after he sells he no longer has the power to drive the price down, but now he sits on a very large fiat holding, he might even buy back at a higher price and drive the price higher. I know that if I had 10,000 BTC, I would sell 1,000 BTC and buy a house and a car and whatever I wanted, and sell another 1,000 BTC to diversify into some other assets. And keep 8,000 BTC because I don't know of anywhere else to put that kind of money into good work. I believe in Bitcoin so as an investor it makes sense to keep it here. I probably would never sell because I would never need anything else after the initial 1,000 BTC sell.
Bitcoin is like a black hole that sucks in the Earths monetary resources over time. Most people that bought really early and were smart enough to hold all the way to these prices will only sell what they need to sell and keep the rest in BTC. Some of them might want to speculate and try to time the ATH, only to buy back in with most of the fiat they sold. Which means that even if money goes out of the market, it only goes out of the market temporarily, only to get back in at hopefully lower prices. And so the market grows, and grows and grows over time.
Point 8)
Bitcoin has intrinsic value. When people like Peter Schiff say that gold has intrinsic value because gold can be used in electronics and aviation and therefore gold has value but Bitcoin has no value because it has no intrinsic value, you have to take a pause and do some critical thinking. Can you imagine 16th century pirates looking to find a gold treasure worth an insane amount because they knew gold had value because of electronics and aviation? This is clearly absurd. Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and electronics and aviation was not even a thing 150 years ago. Gold has value because it is globally scarce. Bitcoin is absolutely verifiable scarce. Bitcoin has intrinsic value because of it's monetary policy and because you can carry millions of dollars of value by remembering only 24 words in your head, and carry that value wherever you want and no one can stop you, that is intrinsic value.
People had a hard time understanding that a website like Facebook could be worth billions of dollars, because it was not physical, it was "just a website". Even a website like Google search is not physical and still it has immense value. It is valuable information and it provides a good service, and that has value, it does not have to be physical and tangible.
submitted by 21btc to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Don't buy into this rally. Just a warning. Explanation inside. (/Bitcoin/ banned me for posting this)

90% of people are still 90% down.
This market is not going anywhere, anytime soon.
Before you downvote me.... just for angst or hope against getting your money back. Hear me out.
I made 500% gains in January. Got out. Warned everyone. Tether. Manipulation.
I'll buy when the stops are broken and Eth flash crashes to $0.10 again
You have to consider. It's now September. Last November 2017, Roger Ver was calling for BCH to replace BTC within 6 months. Everyone's prospect about this market has been blinding and extreme, and for the most part upside down/misguided.
When its 9 months into 2018, and were every bi-weekly up/down 30% its unjustified for the current centralized system, to invest in a speculative asset that is becoming increasingly more volatile every month. We should be seeing less volatility. The chances now, of ETF's ever happening become presumibly worse. It's dangerous for regulators to also at this point announce an ETF, just for the simple nature that it will create another positive feedback bubble loop.
I don't know where some of you guys find the extra money under the cushions and couches... to catch what is essentially a falling knife.
God speed to you if Eth is $1000 next year... but...
The technicals are so manipulated, flawed, incoherent.
RSI, MACD, Bolingers, near meaningless, and that's whats scaring away everyone.
We've only had 10 years of track history in crypto, so Im hesitant in treating the system with accurate technicals.
The stock market indices have a track history of 100+ years. After time and stability, measurements, certain indicators were introduced. Bollinger Bands, etc. Do these measurements aid in predicting where BTC or your favorite coin is going? In my opinion, no. Now, its MOMO, Social Media, and #Yacht.
Long term, sure... were still up... or anyone that bought in prior to 2017 basically. So, I guess the moving average, over 10 years - is an okay indicator, but wait....
When AMD announced earnings a few weeks ago - they made a bold statement stating their 3rd/4th quarter revenue on GPU's for crypto would be near zero. Which is a very very bearish stance.
These huge price swings are freaking everyone out. Im not gonna use the "T" word yet..... as is the political climate -- and most politicians simply won't come out and say.... Tulip Mania.
The Dutch East India Company was the largest company of its time, valued at $7.1 adjusted for inflation. All because of... spice... opium... and most of all a bubble in tulips.
I'm more inclinced to study a bubble right now, so much so than the individual coins. But, the system as a whole intrigues me. Regardless if it goes up or down.
It's already been concluded that Tether was behind December's bubble. Academics have already proven this. It's pretty settled, like climate science. Going forward, with that conclusion in mind, put yourself in SEC regulators shoes now. There are too many questions, with not enough answers. There is no transparency. The exchanges, and the transfer of USDT is causing havoc in the system. If Bitfinex is the biggest exhcange in the world by volume, and they've basically had zero banking/shady banking since April of 2017, until "the largest exchange in the world" is put in its place - I honestly just have a fatalistic viewpoint on crypto.
Coinbene pulled off the same trickery. Can you explain the BitForex volume on this picture? This is now. How would one explain this to SEC regulators? https://imgur.com/a/SsNQjFW
The majority of the members in this group are going to be long term bullish on cryptocurrency. I cant untangle that or the get quick rich mentality. The goal is to make money, but also to have discussion; on the flaws of the current marketplace. There are no assurances it will go up.
This isn't the stock market.
This isn't even OTC assets. Not saying Bitcoin or Crypto overall will go to zero. I'm only trying to ascertain my perspective, and pass it onto some of the more bullish investors. I have money in, but more or less sitting on sidelines with majority posted gains. I want to atleast share the other side of the mirror.
Unlike previous, crashes, corrections, there are certainly more variables. In the old days, you didn't have this number of alt coins. You didn't have the type of manipulation, social media advocates (Dennis Rodman; Potcoin; John McCafe). You didn't have Tether. You didn't have exchanges locked out by banks. Or government regulations, or China saying no. You definately had exchanges collapse. Back then, people still looked at Bitcoin as a growth opportunities and this futurisitic way of paying for goods. When China backed out, it changed my perception of the future. Also, everyone thought the transfer of Bitcoin would be free. Turned out, thats a big fat lie. That's why the system was basically built.
The banks and governments have crypto by the balls. And when MJ is legalized in the USA, all the PotCoin whales are just going to dump via Eth. (Joking). The only winners right now, are the exchanges (and circa this post Dogecoin). I still have not seen or heard of any winners in the decentralized era. AuraDao was supposed to be that. It's not.
Anyways, Vitalik B. was quoted the other day as saying we'll never see the 1000x folds again in our lifetime.
Meaning, if we invest today in 60 years we won't be Warren Buffet Jr. I think the overall sentiment is, (Im just speaking for the majority of people) is, people saw a technology. Then saw how the technology was exploited. In an unregulated environement. The sentinment is, unregulated currencies are fatally flawed. So, while they might stick around I think Dec 2017 was a one time only. Bitcoin rose to fame like Rhonda Rhousey. Then she lost. Sure, shes still around.. I guess. :P
~$6200'ish is the break even point for mining BTC profitably (across generational AntMiners). Just thought I'd throw that tidbit out there. You might see some strange 'floors' and 'supports' that look unnatural in the coming days.
At thats the bottom line, cause Stone Cold said so. *Glass breaks*
submitted by infectedmethod to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

$50,000+ Bitcoin Could Happen if This Isn’t a Bubble But an S-Curve

On S-Curves--why it really might be different this time Diffusionofideas
The adoption of new technologies over the last century has resembled an S-Curve. As the technology is introduced, it takes time for people to learn about it and realize its potential. Once public awareness reaches a critical mass and the technology is perfected, adoption occurs extremely rapidly, resulting in exponential growth. Finally, once everybody has adopted the technology, the curve flattens out again.
Key questions and bubble follow-up Below is a picture of the Bitcoin market since late 2013. See how even the “massive” bubble of NovembeDecember 2013 is dwarfed by the current one?
Bitcoin NovembeDecember 2013What happens if today’s Bitcoin bubble isn’t a bubble at all, in the traditional sense? What happens if we are actually on the cusp of that massive near-vertical adoption uptake? A look back at the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble might shed some light on current circumstances.
On March 2, 2015, the NASDAQ index hit an all-time high, surging above the 5,000 mark as it finally surpassed its peak price, reached at the top of the dot-com bubble. Today, the index stands at 6,449. It took 15 years, but the markets fully recovered, eventually reaching new highs.
Likewise the Case-Shiller index of housing prices is approaching its pre-bubble heights. The index stopped at 198 in 2006 and is now back to 194. As the economy continues to improve, it’s likely that home prices will continue to rise above their 2006 peak.
What’s the difference? Why did the South Sea bubble, Mississippi bubble, and Dutch tulip mania all eventually go to zero, never to rise again? Why did Internet companies enjoy a new resurgence and eclipse past bubble levels? Why do housing prices seem to be following the same path?
More important, what does all this have to do with Bitcoin?
It’s simple. The bubbles of old were driven by hype, with nothing of value actually backing them. A tulip bulb has zero intrinsic value, and absolutely no potential to become something more. The South Sea company was backed by a worthless monopoly, since South America was under Spanish control. The Mississippi company never could exploit the wealth of the new world, because unlike Spanish territories, Louisiana had no gold or silver to export.
Internet companies like Amazon, Facebook, PayPal and the others are completely different. The Internet offers unmatched potential for growth, with world-changing consequences. Yes, things got overheated in the early 2000s, but prices recovered and the upward trajectory was renewed. Housing prices went out of control in the mid-2000s, but as the population grows, housing is always in demand. A house represents a real asset with real value that meets a real need.
Bitcoin represents a sea change in the way business is conducted on the Internet. It is the world’s first decentralized, non state controlled, truly global currency. Bitcoin is a promising monetary technology that seems more apt to follow the path of an S-Curve than that of a boom-and-bust.
Bitcoin could still be overpriced for this stage of its development. It could be in a bubble that deflates before rising again in a few years. But if Bitcoin is what I think it is, then at some point (maybe even now) we will rapidly shoot up that S-Curve to prices that are presently unimaginable.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1461851427224676&id=1456137244462761
submitted by vicky_hi to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

$50,000+ Bitcoin Could Happen if This Isn’t a Bubble But an S-Curve

On S-Curves--why it really might be different this time Diffusionofideas
The adoption of new technologies over the last century has resembled an S-Curve. As the technology is introduced, it takes time for people to learn about it and realize its potential. Once public awareness reaches a critical mass and the technology is perfected, adoption occurs extremely rapidly, resulting in exponential growth. Finally, once everybody has adopted the technology, the curve flattens out again.
Key questions and bubble follow-up Below is a picture of the Bitcoin market since late 2013. See how even the “massive” bubble of NovembeDecember 2013 is dwarfed by the current one?
Bitcoin NovembeDecember 2013What happens if today’s Bitcoin bubble isn’t a bubble at all, in the traditional sense? What happens if we are actually on the cusp of that massive near-vertical adoption uptake? A look back at the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble might shed some light on current circumstances.
On March 2, 2015, the NASDAQ index hit an all-time high, surging above the 5,000 mark as it finally surpassed its peak price, reached at the top of the dot-com bubble. Today, the index stands at 6,449. It took 15 years, but the markets fully recovered, eventually reaching new highs.
Likewise the Case-Shiller index of housing prices is approaching its pre-bubble heights. The index stopped at 198 in 2006 and is now back to 194. As the economy continues to improve, it’s likely that home prices will continue to rise above their 2006 peak.
What’s the difference? Why did the South Sea bubble, Mississippi bubble, and Dutch tulip mania all eventually go to zero, never to rise again? Why did Internet companies enjoy a new resurgence and eclipse past bubble levels? Why do housing prices seem to be following the same path?
More important, what does all this have to do with Bitcoin?
It’s simple. The bubbles of old were driven by hype, with nothing of value actually backing them. A tulip bulb has zero intrinsic value, and absolutely no potential to become something more. The South Sea company was backed by a worthless monopoly, since South America was under Spanish control. The Mississippi company never could exploit the wealth of the new world, because unlike Spanish territories, Louisiana had no gold or silver to export. Internet companies like Amazon, Facebook, PayPal and the others are completely different. The Internet offers unmatched potential for growth, with world-changing consequences. Yes, things got overheated in the early 2000s, but prices recovered and the upward trajectory was renewed. Housing prices went out of control in the mid-2000s, but as the population grows, housing is always in demand. A house represents a real asset with real value that meets a real need. Bitcoin represents a sea change in the way business is conducted on the Internet. It is the world’s first decentralized, non state controlled, truly global currency. Bitcoin is a promising monetary technology that seems more apt to follow the path of an S-Curve than that of a boom-and-bust.
Bitcoin could still be overpriced for this stage of its development. It could be in a bubble that deflates before rising again in a few years. But if Bitcoin is what I think it is, then at some point (maybe even now) we will rapidly shoot up that S-Curve to prices that are presently unimaginable.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1461851427224676&id=1456137244462761
submitted by vicky_hi to btc [link] [comments]

Debunking The Bitcoin Bubble Ideas

In light of the recent run up in value, global news headlines, and the usual bubble comments throughout the media and financial news. I thought it would be prudent to have a logical discussion on the value of bitcoin. I would like to debunk some of the bitcoin bubble ideas. This particular post on the website Zerohedge.com (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-27/spot-difference) caught my eye in particular. Featuring this picture http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/11/20131127_bubbles_0.png Zerohedge compares historical Tulip mania, the South Sea Company Bubble, the .Com bust, and now... Bitcoin.
While many people would view that image and see many similarities with Bitcoin, I would like to provide some counter points for them to consider. The following are some larger charts of the bubbles provided by Zerohedge:
South Sea: http://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/SouthSeaBubble.png
Nasdaq: http://azizonomics.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/nasdaq-bubble.png
Bitcoin: http://i.imgur.com/lgGW2vB.png
Did you notice anything? Yes they do look similar. But if you took note of the dates on the bitcoin chart, you would see Jan 2011 - Nov 2011 provided. But wait you ask, I thought the media said Bitcoin was a bubble which was bound to burst. The following is the full bitcoin chart. http://i.imgur.com/ZKliuQg.png Even if you buy at the peak of the "bubble," it seems you can still benefit.
I am not saying it will go up forever, please understand this. I am saying that Bitcoin is very different than the other bubbles provided. Not only does it make for an excellent unit of exchange through the blockchain, but it provides a method to store wealth independently from the banking system and government reach, a true breakthrough in the concept of money.
Gold is commonly compared to bitcoin, and while it has similar monetary properties it has important differences. As a purely electronic form of money it can be transported across borders without confiscation. It can be sent across the world without interference from banks or governments. Gold must be protected with significant cost, and transportation is quite difficult if moving any significant distance. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25013393)
Many believe gold is superior because it holds "intrinsic" value, but what really is the "intrinsic" value of gold? Most gold is not used for industrial purposes, (http://www.visualcapitalist.com/portfolio/the-gold-series-uses-and-demand-part-3), but instead is classified for Investment or Jewelry use. As both the investment qualities of Gold and the jewelry value of gold are very much subjective, I cannot state that there truly is Intrinsic value to gold. Be that as it is, I still own some gold as well as bitcoin as I believe both have their place in an investment portfolio.
The South Sea Bubble and the Nasdaq bubble are both very different than bitcoin because Bitcoin is not a stock of a company. Obviously the NASDAQ is not a stock but the companies within the index consist of stocks. In any company there is the option to issue new shares, many of the companies in the .Com bubble had little or no earning... (hello amazon today http://www.google.ca/finance?q=amzn&ei=qyOYUvj4HuWtiQLIQA). The comparison between Bitcoin and stocks is meaningless as they are fundamentally different. Bitcoin is more of a commodity/currency than a stock in many obvious qualities.
While I can not tell you what the price will be tomorrow, I can tell you that Bitcoin has started a movement. It is true monetary freedom, and while the price in fiat is volatile, I know exactly how much BTC I own when I go to sleep at night. I'm happy to own my piece of something bigger than a company, a true monetary community.
I'm happy to share this experience with all the other bitcoiners out there. Have a great weekend and enjoy watching that chart (if that's what you're into).
submitted by sunfrost to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

10 things life has taught me, and how they apply to Bitcoin

About myself: late 30s, lived in several countries, "successful" in 3 business sectors, speak a few languages, BTC investor for the long term, blabla. I am a specalist in the human mind, but technology and future forecasting has always been my passion. Because of my age and experience, I feel I can understand both your psychology and the baby boomers psychology. I think I understand "your world" but also the one of your parents and those in control of society today. I do public speaking and BTC is one of the subjects I am preparing a presentation about. I could talk for hours, but will make it short. Please allow me to share my views, because you guys have given me a lot of interesting information. I don't want to preach, just take my words with a grain of salt and extract whatever is useful (if anything) to you.
1) Anyone that is overly stressed about a crash should not have invested in the first place. If you did, and are losing, hold on to your coins. Who cares to sell if you'll receive pennies for them anyway? If you hold, you may have some when it rebounds. If you sell cheap, you may never know, or what is worse, you'll feel worse if it rebouds (I think it will)
2) Please understand what you are doing if you are investing in it. Study. Read as much as you can (particularly out of this subreddit) so you have a more balanced view, particularly of what the market(s) thinks, rightly or wrongly, about BTC. If you read in other languages, don't forget to take the pulse about BTC in those countries too. Learn as much as you can, go as deep as you can. Having said that, you don't need to understand perfectly what you are doing -by that time the opportunity is sometimes gone- but you must take calculated risks, not just risks.
3) Learn about previous crashes, particularly the one of 1929, the South Sea Bubble, and Tulip Mania. Regardless of what you think, bubble or not, at least learn from history so if you CHOOSE to take the risk, you understand said risk, particularly in what refers to human psychology. Humans are emotional creatures, for good or bad, we could have another tulip mania even if BTC is crap, or BTC could be super-hated even if it is good. I see a lot of people talking "fundamentals" here, but far too few commenting on human psychology in general. (tip- perception is everything. BTC must concentrate on reinforcing marketing and less on the technical details of things)
4) Don't believe anyone that predicts BTC valuations in the short, medium or long term. This is a young market with amateur clueless players, incompetent exchanges monopolizing most of the trade and now bigger capital and HFT coming into the picture. Result: impossible to predict. Period. If you are investing for the short term (less than 2 years) assume that you are taking a risk similar to the one you would take in a casino, or worse.
5) NEVER ask for credit to do speculative investments, unless you don't have to pay it back.
6) Don't try to convince friends. They won't get it and if you think they'll always thank you if they make money, you're wrong. They'll quickly forget it was you who showed them the light. In the other hand, if they lose money, you'll lose friendships and family will always look at you like the idiot that you will surely fell like. Keep your BTC business to yourself. (also, if they don't invest and you get it right you'll have plenty of new "friends" overnight)
7) Make up your mind, sort out your feelings, chill out. You either have capitalism, or you don't. You either use technology (and allow others to use it) at its fullest, or you don't. You can't be a web2.0 guy and a luddite at the same time. Don't waste your time hating the High Frequency Trading guys. They won't make or break BTC. LIke someone said, if BTC can't take it, it is nobody's fault. It is life. We'll live and learn. You won't change anything being upset. The world is as it is. We just have to find ways to profit from it, as ethically as each one of us can do it. We should not judge others. If they're making a mistake, let them also learn from it, but don't YOU get upset over it.
8) Don't worry about the current problems of BTC. I personally think that it will come out of this particularly crash reinforced, but there is no guarantee that it will survive the next ones, and you should have already factored that in. The way I see it, BTC is in a collision course with the richest, most corrupt and savvy financial players the world has ever seen, and these guys will do everything in their power to stop it, control it, sabotage it, or at the very least engineer more crashes like this one so they can buy themselves cheap. This is to be expected, and if it is too much for you to deal with, you should stop being involved in BTC issues now, let alone investing. Life is stressful enough without fighting Golliaths.
Finally
9) don't listen to naysayers. People are always scared of everything, and lazy to change anyway.
10) Study and make your own decisions based on fundamentals, NEVER on emotion. Business is business. Either you play the game or you don't. You should check your feelings out of the door of the arena. If you can make friends of some business partners, great, but don't expect it, and don't desire it.
Bonus:
11) Make sure you have a life outside of it, and you have plans to make a living, or are doing it already, in something that has 0 to do with Bitcoin, if possible. Diversifying risk is essential.
12) Trust is everything and the Internet always remembers. Take care of your reputation.
I could go on and on, but that will be it for the moment. I am going to post shortly an offer for those of you who are talented enough and not scared of the future to either buy off me (I don't have much time for development) or propose joint development of some great Bitcoin-related domains in the .com extension. When I do that, I'd really appreciate if you forward my post to whomever you think may be interested.
That's it. I hope I did not come across as arrogant, just wanted to share my views in the same way that I'd talk to a younger, less experienced brother...you guys have taught me stuff, so if you would allow me, some of my words can now pay back the favor to you.
submitted by ronin_khan to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Is Bitcoin the biggest bubble since the Dutch Tulip Mania? Bitcoin: Cockroach Hotel Or Tulipomania? (Must See) Bitcoin Lex analysis: bitcoin v tulips  Lex Is Bitcoin a Modern-Day Tulip Mania?

The picture also looks different when comparing Bitcoin against history’s famous bubbles. It has often been compared to ‘tulips’ in the media with every drop in bitcoin price. But this comparison is widely inaccurate just like the common misconceptions about Tulipmania as a whole, because BTC price posts a higher low after every crash. “Nocoiners’ favorite bubble, Dutch tulips ... Digital currencies like Bitcoin are very much like the sought-after tulip cultivars. However, digital currencies only exist on computer networks. They are not something you can hold in your hand, like Euros, British Pounds or American dollars. You can, however, trade your hard-earned national currency for most digital currencies. The former president of the Dutch Central Bank, Nout Wellink, has told students at the University of Amsterdam that the hype around bitcoin is worse than his country's Tulip mania in the 17th century. Why Tulip Mania is the Wrong Comparison to Crypto Tulip Mania was a speculative price bubble in the Netherlands during the 1600’s. People flocked to buy futures contracts for tulips, sometimes even trading tulip bulbs up to 10x per day. Source Peo... Bitcoin’s critics say the digital tokens are like the tulip bulbs of 17th century Holland. They generated a wild, speculative rush that quickly disappeared, leaving behind nothing but pretty ...

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Is Bitcoin the biggest bubble since the Dutch Tulip Mania?

SUBSCRIBE ! for videos on finance, making money, how to invest and creative ways to acquire passive income ! After 10+ years of investing and saving, I'm here to pass the knowledge onto you ... When a tulip bulb cost as much as a house: The Tulip Mania of 1637 - Duration: 12:25. The History Guy: History Deserves to Be Remembered Recommended for you 12:25 Forbes Media editor-in-chief Steve Forbes and Layfield Report CEO John Layfield discuss bitcoin, the somewhat-controversial but increasingly popular cryptocu... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Queue Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, says the enthusiasm for bitcoin is worse than Dutch tulip mania in the 1600s. But is the comparison between the two fair? But is the comparison between the ...

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