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End of day summary - 02/27
The Dow plunged 1190.95, or 4.42%, to 25766.64, the Nasdaq lost 414.30, or 4.61%, to 8566.48, and the S&P 500 dropped 137.63, or 4.42%, to 2978.76.
It was a frenetic day of trading action on /thewallstreet. The stock market extended its recent sell-off by more than 4% on Thursday in a volatile session, as the widening spread of the coronavirus heightened pessimism among investors. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 3.5% shortly after the open, then cut its losses to 0.6% by midday, but ultimately closed at session lows with a 4.4% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-4.6%), and Russell 2000 (-3.5%) experienced similar price action. Each of the major indices fell into correction territory, which is often defined as a decline of at least 10% from a recent high, and today's drop sent the S&P 500 well below its 200-day moving average (3046.58) amid heavy selling into the close. From a sector perspective, all 11 S&P 500 sectors fell between 3.3% (health care) and 5.6% (real estate). Other notable moves included WTI crude falling 3.0% to 47.24/bbl to extend its weekly decline to 12.1% and the CBOE Volatility Index surging 42.1% to 39.16 in a protection trade against further equity weakness. Regarding COVID-19, the CDC acknowledged the first coronavirus case of "unknown origin" in the U.S., which raised concerns about a community spread of the virus. California's governor fueled concerns by saying 28 people have tested positive and another 8,400 people are being monitored because of their travel. The impact to global supply chains or consumer spending remains uncertain, but Goldman Sachs warned there could be no U.S. earnings growth in 2020 if the virus becomes widespread. MSFT -7.1%, meanwhile, was the latest high-profile company to issue a quarterly revenue warning, specifically for its More Personal Computing segment. Current, and past, Fed officials offered their views on the matter. In an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh argued that the Fed and other central banks should cut rates due to the coronavirus, while Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the Fed's stance that it's still premature to provide guidance without more data. Besides the coronavirus news, equity investors appeared to be taking cues from the Treasury market. For instance, the S&P 500's early morning low coincided with the high in the Treasury market. At session's end, the 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.10%, and the 10-yr yield declined basis points to 1.30%. Not all stocks closed lower, though. Face mask company (MMM) +0.8% and Bleach company (CLX) +0.4% managed to eke out small gains amid speculation that demand for some of their products will increase due to the coronavirus. Among the noteworthy gainers were VIR and NVAX, which surged 50% and 18%, respectively, as coronavirus fears mount. Both companies are working on coronavirus vaccines. Also higher were ETSY and SQ, which gained a respective 16% and 11% after reporting quarterly results. Among the notable losers was TSLA, which slid 8% after Bloomberg reported registrations of new Teslas in China plunged 46% last month as the coronavirus outbreak adds to a slump in the country's car market. SPCE fell 17% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded the shares to Equal Weight and Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn also downgraded the stock to Neutral following with the shares up 185% year-to-date. In earnings news, BBY reported better than expected sales and earnings for the fourth quarter and raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Last night, BKNG reported "strong" Q4 results, but also cited a significant impact from the coronavirus on its forward outlook, stating that its wider than typical guidance ranges are due to "the high level of uncertainty in forecasting the coronavirus and its associated impact on the company and the travel industry generally." In its own more optimistic coronavirus update,SBUX said it is "seeing the early signs of a recovery" in China. In a letter to employees posted on its corporate blog, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson reported that the coffee giant now has 85% of stores open across China as it continues to assess the ongoing impact of the disease outbreak. Elsewhere in Europe, Stoxx 600 closed 3.6% lower provisionally, officially entering correction territory as it was off more than 10% from its record high notched on Feb. 19 last year.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.5% to 98.51, widening this week's loss to 0.8%.
EUUSD: +1.0% to 1.0986
GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2892
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.0051
USD/JPY: -0.4% to 109.99
The Treasury market has been the epicenter of concerns about the global growth outlook, as well as the frayed psychology pertaining to the COVID-19 outbreak. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points this morning to 1.27%, leaving it down 19 basis points on the week and 65 basis points on the year. Today, the fed funds futures market expects that a rate cut will happen as soon as the March 18 meeting, followed by another cut in June. Treasuries briefly turned negative in midday trade but returned toward their opening levels after California Governor Gavin Newsom said that 28 people in California have tested positive for the coronavirus while more than 8,000 other people are being monitored.
2-yr: -5 bps to 1.10%
3-yr: -3 bps to 1.09%
5-yr: -3 bps to 1.11%
10-yr: -1 bp to 1.30%
30-yr: -1 bp to 1.78%
Oil prices continued their steep decline on Thursday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than 5% at the low to $45.88 per barrel — a price not seen since Jan. 2019 — as fears of the coronavirus outbreak, and what it could mean for crude demand, continue to batter prices.
WTI crude: -4.88% to $46.35/bbl
Gold: -0.4 at $1640.70/ozt
Copper: -0.52% to $2.55/lb
Bitcoin was fighting to keep support at a key level on Feb. 27 as markets worldwide continued to suffer from fears over coronavirus.
Bitcoin: $8,873.19 (24hr: +0.77%)
Ethereum: $231.34 (24hr: +1.52%)
Ripple: $0.24 (24hr: 3.09%)
FAAMG + some penny stocks -4.5% YTD
Spoos -7.8% YTD
Old man -9.7% YTD
Russy -9.8% YTD
BYND reports EBITDA: $9.5M (est $5.76M), Net Rev: $98.5M (est $79.8M).Sees 2020 Net Revenue: $490M To $510M (est $485.7M)
Thoughts on Corona
It is becoming abundantly clear that the spread of the coronavirus is not going to be stopped. What is not clear is the extent of the economic damage that is going to be done by its spread before the world gets comfortable with the notion that the coronavirus is debilitating, but not necessarily deadly for most sufferers. The latter is the accepted perspective when dealing with the flu, but because COVID-19 is so new and won't reportedly have a vaccine to guard against it for some time, there is some understandable fear about contracting the virus that is prompting some extreme measures to contain it. Those measures have been detrimental to the world economy in a number of respects, which include but are not limited to shutting down supply chains, restricting travel, and preventing people from going to work. At the same time, some considerable psychological damage is being done with the understanding that governments around the globe are scrambling to deal with COVID-19 in a way that hasn't been seen in a really long time. China locked down entire cities. Japan announced today that it will be closing elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide until late March. President Trump last night announced that Vice President Pence is being put in charge of the U.S. response to COVID-19. The stock market, therefore, has been getting punched by a left-right combination of growth concerns and frayed investor psychology. That combination has led to some rapid-fire selling for a market that was already stretched and counting on stronger earnings growth in 2020, which now seems unlikely to pull through as expected. The uncertainty surrounding the earnings outlook is a major headwind for the market at the moment. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took2.30seconds.
The Dow fell 380.83, or 1.5%, to 25,029.20, the Nasdaq lost 57.35, or 0.78%, to 7,273.01, and the S&P 500 declined 30.45, or 1.11%, to 2,713.83. Stocks began the session in positive territory as the market attempted to reverse following yesterday's selloff on the heels of the testimony from new Fed chair Jerome Powell. The early economic data, including the annualized Q4 GDP report and the Chicago Purchasing Manager's report, helped lift the market, but by midday the averages had given up their gains and the final hours of the trading day saw the market swing lower. February broke the market's record string of winning months, as today's slide capped a losing month for all of the major averages. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, moving below its 50-day SMA (2736) for the first time this week. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) held up slightly better, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.5%) did slightly worse. Losses were broad on Wednesday, with 11 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing in negative territory. The energy sector was the weakest group (-2.3%), moving in tandem with the price of crude oil after the Department of Energy's weekly crude oil inventory report showed that U.S. inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels last week; WTI crude futures dropped 2.1% to $61.66 per barrel. Meanwhile, the heavily-weighted health care sector (-1.6%) also finished behind the broader market, with CELG leading the retreat. Among the noteworthy gainers was TIVO, which jumped 11% after it reported quarterly results and announced a plan to explore alternatives to "maximize shareholder value." Also higher after reporting quarterly results were AAXN and ETSY, which gained a respective 28% and 20%. Among the notable losers was CELG, which slid 9% after it received a Refusal to File letter from the FDA regarding its New Drug Application for ozanimod. Also lower was FTR, which plunged 24% after suspending its dividend, and ODP, which fell 9% following its earnings report. LOW fell about 7% after the home improvement retailer's Q4 sales beat consensus estimates but its weak margins caused earnings to miss consensus. VRX dropped 11% after reporting a fourth-quarter revenue miss and downbeat guidance. Stocks in Asia closed sharply lower, catching up with the selloff in the U.S. after the Powell comments. In Europe, stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -0.71% down 0.4%.
The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% at 90.61 after marking a session high just a tick above its 50-day moving average (90.69). The dollar rose to five-week highs on Wednesday, bolstered by an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve's new chairman, which raised expectations the central bank could aggressively increase interest rates over the next two years.
EUUSD: -0.17% to 1.2211
GBP/USD: -0.86% to 1.3786
USD/CAD: +0.32% to 1.2816
U.S. Treasuries ended the midweek session on a higher note with the long bond pacing the advance after showing relative strength on Tuesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.87 percent at 3:15 p.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 3.13 percent.
2-yr: UNCH at 2.26%
5-yr: -2 bps to 2.65%
10-yr: -4 bps to 2.87%
30-yr: -5 bps to 3.13%
Oil prices fell more than 2 percent on Wednesday and gasoline futures tumbled, after the U.S. government said crude inventories rose more than expected while gasoline stocks posted a big build instead of the draw that was forecast. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 23, compared with analyst expectations for a build of 2.1 million barrels.
Mar WTI crude settled -$1.35 at $61.66/barrel on the day. In other energy, Mar natural gas settled -$0.01 at $2.67/MMBtu
On Metals, Apr gold rose $0.40 to $1319.00/oz, while Mar silver lost $0.03 to $16.40/oz. Mar copper dropped $0.06 to $3.13/lb
Finally, agriculture: Mar corn rose $0.02 at $3.81/bu.
Mar soy is up $0.05 at $10.55/bu.
Mar wheat rose $0.16 at $4.93/bu.
Bitcoin: $10,718.10 (24hr: -0.38%)
Ethereum: $875.08 (24hr: -0.83%)
Ripple: $0.92 (24hr: -3.17%)
Nasdaq +5.4% YTD
Dow +1.3% YTD
S&P 500 +1.5% YTD
Russell -1.5% YTD
On Thursday, investors will receive a slew of economic reports, including Personal Income and Spending for January at 8:30 AM ET, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index for January at 8:30 AM ET, weekly Initial Claims at 8:30 AM ET, the ISM Index for February at 10:00 AM ET, and Construction Spending for January at 10:00 AM ET. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 AM ET, wrapping up his semiannual monetary policy testimony.
Bitcoin prices in USD and CNY (top left) move together at almost all scales and during the entire examined period. There is no evident leader in the relationship, though the USD market appears to slightly lead the CNY at lower scales. However, at the lowest scales (the highest frequencies), the correlations vanish. For the volumes (top right), the two markets are strongly positively correlated ... Supporting the Fed’s policies, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles L. Evans said he would like to keep rates where they are until inflation gets up around 2.5%, the publication conveyed. However, it could take years for the Fed to hit its targets since inflation is currently closer to 1% and the unemployment rate is higher than it has been since the Great Depression. Having a quarter of all USD printed in a single year is more than alarming, it’s mind-blowing. Additionally, on October 1, ... The Fed has provided data on the total amounts of the daily loans, but not the names of the recipients. All it will say is that the loans are going to its 24 primary dealers, which are the trading units of the big banks on Wall Street. The last time we tallied its ... The IRS told a federal court it is now seeking information only for those accounts that engaged in transactions worth $20,000 or more. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency conceived in a 2008 paper by Satoshi Nakamoto. Though many digital currencies had been previously imagined, Bitcoin was the first to solve the “double-spending problem,” that is, to eliminate the possibility of using the same digital coins in multiple transactions. In 2009, shortly after its inception, a major hack…
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